Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-27 08:56Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decrease, demand will gradually increase, and combined with the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, it is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels[3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract is 16,890 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote is 1,988 dollars/ton, down 7 dollars. The 09 - 10 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shanghai lead position is 85,570 lots, up 174 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 1,540 lots, up 1,253 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt is 58,201 tons, down 747 tons[3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 63,690 tons, down 1,154 tons; the LME lead inventory is 271,550 tons, down 1,500 tons[3] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 1 lead spot price is 16,775 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market 1 lead spot price is 16,990 yuan/ton, unchanged. The lead main contract basis is - 115 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 38.74 dollars/ton, down 4.95 dollars[3] - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan decreased by 51 yuan[3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS lead supply - demand balance is - 18,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons. The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 37.27%, up 3.12 percentage points. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 37.27%, up 3.12 percentage points. The monthly output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. The weekly output of primary lead is 37,500 tons, up 2,200 tons[3] - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is 77.66 dollars/kiloton, up 4.41 dollars. The global lead ore production is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons. The monthly lead ore import volume is 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons[3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,132.14 yuan/ton, up 1.78 yuan[3] - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41.45 million units, down 425,000 units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 19,975 yuan/ton, unchanged[3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other electrical products is 2,002.89 points, down 35.44 points. The monthly automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle production is 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles[3] 3.6 Industry News - Regarding the Fed, Trump's administration is weighing plans to influence local Fed branches and review the selection of local Fed presidents. Cook's lawyer has sought a judicial ruling on Trump's dismissal. Trump says he has a replacement for Cook and will soon hold a majority of seats at the Fed. Former White House Economic Council Director Brainard says Trump's dismissal of Cook is an unprecedented attack on the Fed, which may lead to inflation and a rise in long - term interest rates. Barkin predicts a moderate adjustment of interest rates[3] - Regarding the tariff war, Trump says furniture tariffs will be introduced soon and will be very high, and will implement export restrictions and tariffs against foreign digital taxes. Indonesian officials say the US has agreed in principle to exempt Indonesian palm oil, cocoa, and rubber from 19% tariffs. German media reports that Trump has called Modi at least four times recently but was rejected[3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The production of primary lead refineries is relatively stable, but with the continuous fluctuation of lead prices, the production decisions of some primary lead refineries have been adjusted, and the output still fluctuates slightly. The supply of recycled lead shows regional differences. The supply of waste battery raw materials is tight, and smelters lack confidence. The overall supply side is tight. The sewage inspection in Anhui has a marginal impact on local recycled lead production, increasing the uncertainty of supply[3] - The operating rate of recycled lead has slightly decreased and remains at a relatively low level. The profits of recycled enterprises have not improved, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable. In terms of inventory, foreign inventory is rising, domestic inventory is falling, and overall inventory is rising. Currently, demand has not effectively driven inventory reduction, but it is expected to gradually strengthen, which will support lead prices[3]