Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-27 08:56Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Alumina: The fundamentals may show a situation of both supply and demand growth, with a slight reduction in social inventory and an increase in exchange inventory. It is recommended to trade with a light - position and a weak - oscillating strategy [2]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The fundamentals may be in a situation of a slight increase in supply, temporarily weak but expected to recover demand, and a slight accumulation of industrial inventory. It is recommended to trade with a light - position and an oscillating strategy [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The fundamentals may be in a stage of a slight reduction in supply and weak demand. It is recommended to trade with a light - position and sell on rallies strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - Prices and Spreads: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,810 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the closing price of the Alumina futures main contract is 3,046 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 2,638.50 US dollars/ton, up 16.50 US dollars [2]. - Inventory: LME aluminum inventory is 478,075 tons, down 650 tons; Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventory is 124,605 tons, up 3,952 tons; Alumina inventory is 103,364 tons, up 14,952 tons [2]. - Open Interest: The open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 269,866 lots, up 18,457 lots; the open interest of the Alumina main contract is 237,684 lots, up 8,959 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price is 20,840 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the Alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,170 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of Alumina is 124 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is 30 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Supply: Alumina production is 756.49 million tons, down 18.44 million tons; the import volume of Alumina is 12.59 million tons, up 2.47 million tons [2]. - Demand: The demand for Alumina from electrolytic aluminum plants remains high, especially in the southwest region during the July - August wet season [2]. 3.4 Downstream and Application - Production: Aluminum product production is 548.37 million tons, down 39 million tons; automobile production is 251.02 million vehicles, down 29.84 million vehicles [2]. - Export: The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Situation - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 6.02%, up 0.20%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.36%, up 0.08% [2]. - Implied Volatility and Put - Call Ratio: The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money is 8.72%, down 0.0050%; the put - call ratio is 1.09, up 0.0131 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The 13th Plenary Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized the development of new - quality productivity [2]. - Premier Li Qiang stressed the expansion of high - quality service imports and the promotion of high - quality development of the service industry [2]. - Trump may let Stephen Milan serve on the Federal Reserve Board for a long time and may visit China this year [2]