Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-27 08:56Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The ICE cotton futures price closed lower due to concerns about increased supply caused by good crop conditions in the US. In China, cotton is in a destocking state, with tight supply before the new - cotton harvest, and the spot price remains firm. The total quota for processing trade of imported cotton with sliding - scale duties in China in 2025 is 200,000 tons. Although inland spinning enterprises have no profit, there are expectations for the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" peak demand season, and the operating rate has slightly rebounded. Overall, the quota news puts short - term downward pressure on the cotton futures price, but tight old - crop supply and improved demand expectations support the price. It is expected to fluctuate, and the medium - term trend is suppressed by the expected increase in new - crop cotton production. The report suggests short - term long positions on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price: 14,075 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; cotton futures top - 20 net positions: - 54,437 hands, up 3,130 hands; main - contract cotton positions: 508,803 hands, up 739 hands; cotton warehouse receipts: 6,859 sheets, down 118 sheets. - Cotton yarn main - contract closing price: 20,100 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; cotton yarn futures top - 20 net positions: - 500 hands, up 16 hands; main - contract cotton yarn positions: 22,463 hands, up 200 hands; cotton yarn warehouse receipts: 63 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,342 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 13,492 yuan/ton, down 118 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty): 14,282 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan. - China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S): 20,760 yuan/ton, unchanged; arrival price of imported pure - cotton carded yarn 32S: 21,897 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; arrival price of imported pure - cotton combed yarn 32S: 23,767 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,418 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; national industrial cotton inventory: 857,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; cotton imports: 50,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; cotton yarn imports: 110,000 tons, unchanged. - Imported cotton profit: 1,052 yuan/ton, up 184 yuan; national commercial cotton inventory: 2.1898 million tons, down 0.64 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 27.67 days, down 0.69 days; grey - cloth inventory days: 36.14 days, down 1.1 days; monthly cloth output: 2.7 billion meters, down 0.79 billion meters; monthly yarn output: 2.065 million tons, up 0.114 million tons. - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value: 1,516,175,900 US dollars, down 10,495,500 US dollars; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value: 1,160,400,900 US dollars, down 44,419,800 US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money cotton call options: 10.8%, down 0.54%; implied volatility of at - the - money cotton put options: 10.82%, down 0.53%. - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 8.59%, up 0.21%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 5.71%, up 0.03% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In July 2025, China's textile and clothing sales decreased significantly. The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and needle - textile products were 96.13 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.74% and a month - on - month decrease of 24.63%. From January to July, the cumulative retail sales were 841.44 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.25%. - On Tuesday, the ICE December cotton contract closed down 1.05%. On Wednesday, the cotton 2601 contract closed down 0.32%, and the cotton yarn 2511 contract closed down 0.3% [2].