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瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20250827

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The international raw sugar price maintains a low - level oscillating trend due to the good production prospects in major Asian sugar - producing countries and concerns about the sugar content of Brazilian sugarcane in the 2025/26 season. In the domestic market, the profit window for out - of - quota imports remains open, and the import volume in July increased significantly month - on - month, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past decade. The beet sugar will start to be squeezed in September, increasing the supply. The demand is expected to increase during the upcoming double - festival stocking period. The inventory pressure is not large, but the de - stocking process has slowed down. The new - season sugar production is expected to be at a high level in the past four years. These factors will suppress the medium - term price trend. It is recommended to try short - selling at high prices and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5620 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the main contract position is 363151 lots, down 2979 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 14906, down 409, and the net long position of the top 20 futures is - 14219 lots, down 295 lots. The total number of effective warehouse receipt forecasts is 1, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian and Thai sugar within the quota is 4540 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5769 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan, and that of Thai sugar is 5755 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5845 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan), 5920 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and 6020 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) respectively [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares. The national cumulative sugar production is 1116.21 tons, an increase of 5.49 tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 811.38 tons, an increase of 86.92 tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 tons, a decrease of 81.43 tons, and the sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47%. The monthly sugar import volume is 740000 tons, an increase of 320000 tons, and the monthly sugar export volume of Brazil is 359.37 tons, an increase of 23.47 tons [2]. Industrial Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1330 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 101 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1330 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 73 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 41 tons, an increase of 7.3 tons, and the monthly output of soft drinks is 1796.6 tons, a decrease of 46.2 tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 9.15%, an increase of 0.85%; that of put options is 9.18%, an increase of 0.88%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.47%, down 1.23%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.18%, an increase of 0.05% [2]. Industry News - The Brazilian National Supply Company revised down the sugar production forecast for the 2025/26 season by 3.1% to 44.5 million tons due to adverse weather affecting sugarcane planting. On Tuesday, the ICE raw sugar October contract rose 0.18%, and on Wednesday, the domestic sugar 2601 contract fell 0.67% [2].