Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-27 09:12Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests a wait - and - see approach or buying on dips with reference prices between 121,000 and 124,000 yuan/ton. The raw material situation is tight, the smelting output has a slight increase, downstream demand shows mixed trends, and the nickel price has dropped recently with improved spot premium and slightly reduced domestic inventory [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,760 yuan/ton, up 1,390 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread is - 130 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,280 dollars/ton, up 305 dollars [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 29,785 lots, up 4,713 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 209,220 tons, up 72 tons; the SHFE nickel inventory is 26,943 tons, down 19 tons; the warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 22,025 tons, down 61 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 123,150 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 123,050 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warrant) price is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the basis of the main NI contract is 1,390 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan; the LME nickel (spot/three - month) spread is - 185.09 dollars/ton, down 9.26 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 500.58 million tons, up 65.92 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,205.85 million tons, up 110.69 million tons [3]. - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 63.77 dollars/ton, down 2.08 dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,200 metal tons, down 400 metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, up 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 835,900 tons, down 205,500 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.6981 million tons, down 45,900 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 590,100 tons, up 7,400 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump's "three - step method" to control the Federal Reserve is in progress. If he successfully fires Lisa Cook, he may get four seats on the seven - member board of governors [3]. - The State Council's "Artificial Intelligence +" action plan focuses on AI chip research and software ecosystem cultivation, and promotes the development of intelligent vehicles and other terminals [3]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The raw material situation is tight due to the PNBP policy in Indonesia and the decline of domestic nickel ore port inventory despite the recovery of Philippine nickel ore supply [3]. - In the smelting sector, the production of leading enterprises was stable in July, with some smelters increasing output and new production capacity planned, leading to a slight increase in refined nickel output [3]. - In the demand side, stainless steel mills increased production due to improved profits, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries was limited. The nickel price dropped recently, leading to improved spot premium and slightly reduced domestic inventory [3].