瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250827

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Gold prices are supported by risk - aversion sentiment and remain resilient, but lack major macro - catalytic factors in the short term, mainly moving in a high - level range. If the subsequent PCE data cools down, it may further boost the expectation of interest rate cuts, but the market expects a slight rebound in this PCE. The non - farm payrolls report in early September will be the next key macro - catalyst. It is recommended to lightly position after a pullback. Technically, the daily RSI shows that gold oscillates in the 30 - 60 range, and the MACD indicates short - term upward momentum. The 790 yuan/gram level may form strong resistance. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 781.16 yuan/gram, up 0.04; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 9305 yuan/kg, down 49. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver are 166596 hands and 280655 hands respectively, down 7992 hands and 23167 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver main contracts are 159517 hands and 104337 hands respectively, down 1649 hands and 4866 hands. The warehouse receipt quantities of gold and silver are 37503 kg and 1165498 kg respectively, with gold unchanged and silver up 38165 kg. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 779 yuan/gram, up 2.14; the spot price of silver is 9294 yuan/kg, down 25. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 2.16 yuan/gram, up 2.1; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 11 yuan/kg, up 24. [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 959.92 tons, up 1.43 tons; silver ETF holdings are 15274.69 tons, down 14.13 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold and silver in CFTC are 212590 contracts and 46549 contracts respectively, with gold down 16895 contracts and silver up 2281 contracts. The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces. [2] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 8.57%, up 0.09%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 10.33%, down 0.26%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for gold is 16.14% and 16.15% respectively, down 0.15% and 0.14%. [2] 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump said that trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea have been completed and will impose "high" tariffs on imported furniture soon. Trump publicly accused Fed Governor Cook of "fraudulent and potentially criminal behavior", and Cook said Trump has no right to fire her. According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 12.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 87.8%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 6.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 50.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 43.2%. [2] 3.6 Technical Analysis and Trading Suggestions - Technically, the daily RSI shows that gold oscillates in the 30 - 60 range, and the MACD indicates short - term upward momentum. The 790 yuan/gram level may form strong resistance. The Shanghai gold 2510 contract is concerned about the range of 750 - 800 yuan/gram; the Shanghai silver 2510 contract is concerned about the range of 9300 - 9400 yuan/kg. For the outer market, the London gold price is concerned about the range of 3300 - 3400 US dollars/ounce, and the London silver price is concerned about the range of 38.5 - 39.5 US dollars/ounce. It is recommended to lightly position after a pullback. [2]