Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-27 09:12Report Overview - Report Title: Shanghai Zinc Industry Daily Report 2025 - 08 - 27 [2] - Researcher: Wang Fuhui [3] - Futures Qualification Number: F03123381 [3] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0019878 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, the zinc ore processing fee has continued to rise, and the sulfuric acid price has increased significantly. The smelter's profit has been further repaired, and production enthusiasm has increased. New production capacities in various regions have been gradually released, and the resumption of previously overhauled production capacities has accelerated supply growth. Currently, the import loss continues to expand, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, the zinc price has risen slightly, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand at low prices. The trading atmosphere has become dull, domestic social inventories have increased, and the spot premium is at a low level. Overseas LME inventories have decreased significantly, but the LME spot premium has been adjusted downwards, which may weaken the support for the domestic zinc price. Technically, with low positions and price adjustments, both long and short sides are cautious. Attention should be paid to the support at 22,200. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,310 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 10 - 11 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 0 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,807 US dollars/ton, up 1.5 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 207,071 lots, down 2,164 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 7,100 lots, up 903 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 36,213 tons, down 153 tons. The SHFE inventory is 77,838 tons, up 1,035 tons; the LME inventory is 65,525 tons, down 2,550 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,170 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the ZN main contract is - 40 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 4.61 US dollars/ton, down 1.66 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,990 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. The global zinc mine production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The zinc social inventory is 124,600 tons, up 7,000 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, up 48.4168 million square meters; the housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, up 24.6739 million square meters. The automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6期权市场 - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option on zinc is 12.63%, down 0.94 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option on zinc is 12.63%, down 0.94 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 5.86%, up 0.21 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 12.91%, up 0.05 percentage points [3]. 3.7行业消息 - Trump's "three - step method" to control the Federal Reserve is in progress: replace Powell, control the board of governors, and fire the presidents of regional Federal Reserve banks. If Cook is successfully fired, Trump may obtain four seats on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and have a majority in the seven - member council. The State Council's "Artificial Intelligence +" action opinion focuses on AI chip research and development and software ecosystem cultivation, and promotes the development of smart cars and other terminals [3].