Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-27 09:12Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report [2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the market will mainly experience volatile adjustments. It suggests either waiting and observing or cautiously holding previous long - positions, with a focus on the 270,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton range [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai Tin was 271,790 yuan/ton, up 2,370 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract for Shanghai Tin was down 250 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price was 34,130 US dollars/ton, up 285 US dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai Tin was 33,309 lots, up 23,394 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai Tin was - 1,252 lots, up 417 lots; LME tin total inventory was 1,780 tons, down 5 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin was 7,491 tons, down 301 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants were 155 tons, up 55 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of tin was 7,163 tons, up 11 tons; the SMM1 tin spot price was 272,000 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 273,080 yuan/ton, up 2,670 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 210 yuan/ton, down 370 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 173 US dollars/ton, up 123 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate was 260,000 yuan/ton, up 2,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 264,000 yuan/ton, up 2,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu was 176,290 yuan/ton, up 960 yuan; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets was 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Trump's "three - step plan" to control the Federal Reserve is advancing. If he successfully fires Lisa Cook, he may get four seats on the seven - member board of governors. The State Council's "Artificial Intelligence +" action plan focuses on AI chip development and software ecosystem cultivation, and promotes the development of intelligent vehicles and other terminals [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, actual production will not start until the fourth quarter. The Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages. Currently, the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. In July, the increase in smelting output was affected by multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products. However, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. Most downstream and end - user enterprises are taking a wait - and - see attitude, using previous inventories for production and only making a certain amount of rigid demand purchases when prices fall slightly. The domestic inventory has increased, and the LME inventory has rebounded. Technically, the long - position is stronger with increased positions, and the price has reached above 270,000 yuan [3]