HTSC·2025-08-27 09:20Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 50.52 billion RMB for 1H25, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.95 billion RMB, slightly up by 0.08% year-on-year. The decline in profit is primarily attributed to the negative impact of tariffs on international freight forwarding and weak demand in specialized logistics [1][2]. - The report anticipates an improvement in profitability in the second half of 2025, driven by a reduction in tariff impacts and a potential recovery in the international freight forwarding and specialized logistics markets in 2026-2027 [1][5]. - The company plans to optimize its asset structure by selling a 25% stake in a subsidiary, which is expected to generate significant one-time disposal gains and cash inflow [5]. Summary by Sections International Freight Forwarding - The international freight forwarding segment showed resilience with a profit of 1.22 billion RMB in 1H25, a slight decline of 1.2% year-on-year. Air freight volumes decreased by 0.5%, while sea freight volumes increased by 6.2% [2]. - The report highlights that the tariff adjustments in the U.S. significantly impacted air freight volumes, but the sea freight market remained relatively stable due to its larger scale [2]. Specialized Logistics - The specialized logistics segment reported a revenue of 14.32 billion RMB, down 5.9% year-on-year, with a profit decline of 22.4%. The drop in profit is attributed to weak overall macro demand and pressure on the contract logistics market [3]. - The report notes that logistics warehousing prices are at historical lows, while costs remain rigid, contributing to the profit decline [3]. Investment Income - Investment income from joint ventures totaled 690 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 29.6%. The contribution from the joint venture with DHL fell by 38.7%, reflecting a decline in the international air freight market [4]. Asset Optimization - The company has completed the listing of its first domestic REITs in the logistics sector and plans to sell part of its stake in a subsidiary, which is expected to bring in approximately 1.793 billion RMB in one-time gains and around 4.442 billion RMB in cash inflow [5]. - The report adjusts the PE valuation multiples upward, reflecting the anticipated recovery in market conditions and the company's asset optimization efforts [5].