现货市场略有转暖，盘面延续震荡

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; no specific ratings for inter - period and cross - variety strategies [3] Core View - The spot market for propylene has slightly warmed up, and the futures market has continued to fluctuate. South Korea's petrochemical industry's potential naphtha cracking capacity reduction may support overseas propylene prices. Supply is expected to tighten, but downstream profit pressure may limit price increases. Demand has short - term support but its sustainability is uncertain, and cost support has shifted upward [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6467 yuan/ton (-24), the East China spot price is 6475 yuan/ton (+25), the North China spot price is 6470 yuan/ton (+15), the East China basis is 8 yuan/ton (+49), and the North China basis is 3 yuan/ton (+39) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The propylene operating rate is 75% (+1%). Propylene CFR - Japan naphtha CFR is 193 US dollars/ton (-1), and propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 94 US dollars/ton (-3) [1] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit is - 276 yuan/ton (-13) [1] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - PP powder operating rate is 40% (+1.29%), production profit is - 120 yuan/ton (-65); epoxy propane operating rate is 74% (+2%), production profit is - 383 yuan/ton (-86); n - butanol operating rate is 89% (+0%), production profit is 357 yuan/ton (+21); octanol operating rate is 92% (+6%), production profit is 420 yuan/ton (-10); acrylic acid operating rate is 70% (-5%), production profit is 428 yuan/ton (-18); acrylonitrile operating rate is 73% (+1%), production profit is - 595 yuan/ton (-23); phenol - acetone operating rate is 78% (+1%), production profit is - 627 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 5. Propylene Inventory - The in - factory inventory is 40320 tons (+3470) [1]