新能源及有色金属日报：淡旺季交换电解铝冶炼利润走扩-20250827

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminium: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminium alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] - Arbitrage: SHFE aluminium positive spread, long AD11 short AL11 [10] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - At the transition between the off - season and peak season of consumption, the aluminium price shows a resonance between micro and macro factors. The Fed's expectation of a September interest rate cut has increased again, and the macro - situation is favorable with non - ferrous metals showing a generally strong and volatile trend. The supply side of the aluminium fundamentals has no pressure and runs stably, and consumption is showing a trend of transitioning from the off - season to the peak season [6]. - The alumina spot market has a situation where the domestic spot price is loosening, and the pattern of stronger in the south and weaker in the north continues. The import window is closed, but the import loss is limited. The cost is supported but lacks upward momentum, and the supply is in continuous surplus with inventory increasing [7][8]. - For aluminium alloy, the consumption is starting to transform from the off - season to the peak season, and the price spread in the spot market and the smelting profit of aluminium alloy enterprises are showing a seasonal repair trend [9]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminium Spot - East China A00 aluminium price is 20,780 yuan/ton, with a change of 0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; East China aluminium spot premium/discount is 0 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Central China A00 aluminium price is 20,620 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changes - 30 yuan/ton to - 160 yuan/ton. Foshan A00 aluminium price is 20,730 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminium spot premium/discount changes - 10 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [1] Aluminium Futures - On August 26, 2025, the main SHFE aluminium contract opened at 20,750 yuan/ton, closed at 20,715 yuan/ton, with a change of - 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 20,775 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,680 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 103,054 lots, and the open interest was 251,409 lots [2] Aluminium Inventory - As of August 26, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminium ingot social inventory was 616,000 tons, with a change of 2.0 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 56,274 tons, with a change of - 396 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminium inventory was 478,075 tons, with a change of - 650 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On August 26, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,205 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,180 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,210 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,320 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,330 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 372 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On August 26, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 3,184 yuan/ton, closed at 3,069 yuan/ton, with a change of - 111 yuan/ton or - 3.49% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price reached 3,202 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 3,065 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 421,870 lots, and the open interest was 228,725 lots [2] Aluminium Alloy Price - On August 26, 2025, the Baotai civil raw aluminium purchase price was 15,800 yuan/ton, the mechanical raw aluminium purchase price was 15,900 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton compared to yesterday. The Baotai ADC12 quotation was 20,200 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton compared to yesterday [3] Aluminium Alloy Inventory - The aluminium alloy social inventory is 52,100 tons, and the in - factory inventory is 60,300 tons [4] Aluminium Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 20,097 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is 4 yuan/ton [5]