Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's GTV (Gross Transaction Value) in brokerage business shows steady growth, and the profit margins in diversified sectors are continuously recovering [6] - The company has a strong market position in the brokerage sector, with a focus on enhancing operational efficiency and expanding into home decoration and rental services as potential growth drivers [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 77,777 million - 2024: 93,457 million - 2025E: 108,558 million - 2026E: 120,419 million - 2027E: 133,705 million - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 28% for 2023, 20% for 2024, and gradually decreasing to 11% for 2026 and 2027 [5][7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as: - 2023: 5,883 million - 2024: 4,065 million - 2025E: 5,092 million - 2026E: 6,254 million - 2027E: 7,480 million - The net profit growth rates show a significant decline in 2023 and 2024, with a recovery expected in subsequent years [5][7] Business Performance Highlights - In Q2 2025, the company reported a total GTV of 878.7 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. The breakdown includes: - Existing home transactions: 583.5 billion (up 2.2%) - New home transactions: 255.4 billion (up 8.5%) [6] - The company achieved a net income of 26.01 billion in Q2 2025, reflecting an 11.3% year-on-year increase, while the gross profit was 5.70 billion, down 12.5% year-on-year [6] - The company’s active store count reached 58,664, a 32.1% increase year-on-year, and the number of active agents rose to 492,000, up 19.5% year-on-year [6] Investment Analysis Opinion - The report concludes that the brokerage business is experiencing stable growth, and the profit margins in various sectors are on a recovery path. The company is expected to maintain its market share and benefit from the growth in home decoration and rental services [6]
贝壳-W（02423）：经纪业务GTV稳健增长，多元赛道利润率持续修复