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聚烯烃日报:大榭石化投产,新增产能放量-20250827
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-27 09:45

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None [3] Core View - The second - line 450,000 - ton/year PP new device of CNOOC Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical's second - phase project has been officially put into operation, and the first - line 450,000 - ton/year is expected to be put into operation next month, with increasing supply pressure in the medium - to - long term. The number of PE parking and maintenance devices has increased, slightly alleviating the supply pressure, but the overall current operation is still at a relatively high level, with inventory accumulation in production enterprises and certain de - stocking pressure upstream. The PP operation rate has remained flat month - on - month, with a slight decline in inventory at upstream and mid - stream levels. International oil prices are showing a weak trend, oil - based production profits are acceptable, propane prices have risen slightly, and PDH - based PP profits are near the break - even point. Downstream demand is recovering slowly, with the agricultural film entering the seasonal demand conversion stage and slow follow - up of terminal orders for packaging films, plastic weaving, etc. [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Charts include the trend of the plastic futures main contract, LL East China - main contract basis, the trend of the polypropylene futures main contract, and PP East China - main contract basis [8][11] 2. Production Profits and Operation Rates - PE operation rate is 78.7% (- 5.5%), PP operation rate is 78.2% (+ 0.3%). PE oil - based production profit is 254.2 yuan/ton (- 78.3), PP oil - based production profit is - 325.8 yuan/ton (- 78.3), PDH - based PP production profit is 25.7 yuan/ton (- 62.5) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Differences - Charts involve HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt co - polymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire East China [28][35][36] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is - 39.0 yuan/ton (+ 5.2), PP import profit is - 551.6 yuan/ton (+ 5.3), PP export profit is 35.9 US dollars/ton (- 0.6) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operation and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operation rate is 14.5% (+ 0.7%), PE downstream packaging film operation rate is 49.9% (+ 0.8%), PP downstream plastic weaving operation rate is 42.0% (+ 0.6%), PP downstream BOPP film operation rate is 60.7% (- 0.5%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The report does not provide specific inventory data, but mentions that PE production enterprises have inventory accumulation and upstream has de - stocking pressure, while PP upstream and mid - stream inventory has declined slightly [2]