Xinda Securities·2025-08-27 09:51Investment Rating - The investment rating for Kuaishou-W (1024.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided content, but the report indicates a positive outlook based on performance metrics and growth potential. Core Insights - Kuaishou's Q2 2025 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of 35.046 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, and an adjusted net profit of 5.618 billion yuan, up 20.1% year-on-year. The gross margin reached 55.7%, marking a historical peak [1][3]. - The commercialization of Kuaishou's AI product, Keling, is accelerating, with Q2 revenue of 250 million yuan, a 66.7% increase from Q1. Keling has generated over 200 million videos and 400 million images since its launch [3][6]. - The company's online marketing services revenue reached 19.765 billion yuan in Q2, a 12.8% year-on-year increase, contributing to a higher average revenue per daily active user [3][6]. - E-commerce and live streaming businesses are steadily growing, with live streaming revenue of 10.044 billion yuan, up 8% year-on-year, and e-commerce GMV reaching 358.879 billion yuan, a 17.6% increase [3][6]. - Daily active users (DAU) reached a record high of 409 million, with an average usage time of 126.8 minutes per day, reflecting a 7.5% year-on-year increase in total usage time [3][4]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2023 to 2027, Kuaishou is projected to achieve total revenue of 113.525 billion yuan in 2023, growing to 172.537 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.5% [5][6]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to rise from 6.396 billion yuan in 2023 to 26.536 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a significant growth trajectory [5][6]. - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 50.58% in 2023 to 57.4% in 2027, reflecting operational efficiency [5][6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 35.98 in 2023 to 12.81 in 2027, suggesting potential undervaluation as earnings grow [5][6].