东华能源（002221）：Q2业绩承压下滑，万吨级碳纤维项目有序推进

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Donghua Energy (002221.SZ) with a current price of 8.90 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 16.28 billion CNY for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of only 66 million CNY, down 39.8% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, revenue was 8.30 billion CNY, up 14.4% year-on-year, but net profit dropped 74.7% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company is a leading player in the domestic PDH (Propane Dehydrogenation) sector, and while Q2 performance was under pressure, there is anticipation for a recovery in the PDH industry, which could lead to rapid growth in the company's performance [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 162.8 billion CNY, with a net profit of 0.66 billion CNY. Q2 revenue was 83.0 billion CNY, with a net profit of 0.14 billion CNY [4]. - The company’s PDH price spread was 435 CNY/ton in Q2 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 265 CNY/ton, although it decreased by 87 CNY/ton compared to the previous quarter [5]. Production Capacity and Projects - Donghua Energy operates three major production bases in Zhangjiagang, Ningbo, and Maoming, with significant production capacities in both PDH and polypropylene [6]. - The Maoming carbon fiber project, with a total investment of 3.7 billion CNY, is progressing well and is expected to produce high-performance carbon fibers for various applications upon completion [7]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report has adjusted the profit forecasts for 2025-2026 downwards due to the low overall market conditions in the C3 industry chain. The expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.76 billion CNY (down 40%), 3.46 billion CNY (down 54%), and 4.99 billion CNY respectively [8][9]. - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company’s future growth potential, particularly with the ongoing development of the Maoming project and expansion into hydrogen energy [8].