黑色金属日报-20250827

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coking coal: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Manganese silicon: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The steel market is under pressure in the short term due to weak demand expectations and a weak macro - atmosphere. Iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly. Coke and coking coal prices are highly volatile in the short term, affected by policy expectations. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon follow their own supply - demand situations and external factors [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market is weakly oscillating. Thread demand shows a slight improvement, while hot - rolled coil demand remains resilient. However, overall demand is weak due to a significant decline in real estate investment and a slowdown in infrastructure and manufacturing growth. The market is under negative feedback pressure, but inventory levels are low. The short - term market is still under pressure, and attention should be paid to changes in the commodity market [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market is oscillating. Global shipments are falling from a high level but are still stronger than last year. Domestic arrivals are decreasing, and port inventories are oscillating. The supply - demand situation is marginally weakening, and iron - water production cuts are becoming a reality. The market is expected to oscillate weakly [3] Coke - Coke prices are falling. Due to upcoming major events, there are expectations of production restrictions in East China. Iron - water production is high, and the seventh round of price increases for coke has been fully implemented. Coke inventories are slightly increasing, and traders' purchasing willingness is decreasing. The price is highly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support at previous lows [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are falling. Coal mine production is decreasing, spot auction transactions are weakening, and terminal inventories are slightly decreasing. Total coking coal inventories are increasing, and production - end inventories are likely to continue to increase in the short term. The price is highly volatile in the short term, affected by policy expectations [6] Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon prices are weakly oscillating. Attention should be paid to the shipping of Australian mines. Demand is high due to high iron - water production. Production is increasing, and inventories are not accumulating. Manganese ore prices have slightly decreased, but there is little room for further decline. In the long term, manganese ore inventories are expected to increase in the second half of the year [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices are weakly oscillating. Iron - water production is slightly decreasing but remains above 240. Export demand is stable at around 30,000 tons. Supply is increasing significantly, and inventories are slightly decreasing. Ferrosilicon prices follow the trend of manganese silicon [8]