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新天绿能(600956):气量下滑拖累业绩,风电持续改善引领成长
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-08-27 11:42

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company's performance has been impacted by a decline in natural gas sales, but wind power operations are showing improvement and driving growth [1][2][3]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from increased installed capacity and improved utilization hours in wind power, alongside cash flow advantages from its natural gas business [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 10.904 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.412 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.23% [1]. - For Q2 2025, revenue was 3.993 billion yuan, down 5.61% year-on-year, with a net profit of 458 million yuan, down 23.43% [1][2]. - The decline in performance is primarily due to a reduction in natural gas sales volume, which fell by 16.86% year-on-year in Q2 2025 [2]. Natural Gas Operations - In Q2 2025, the company completed a total gas transmission/sales volume of 967 million cubic meters, a decrease of 16.86% year-on-year, with sales volume at 893 million cubic meters, down 13.29% [2]. - The company experienced significant declines in various segments of gas sales, including wholesale and retail [2]. Wind Power Operations - The company's wind power segment showed positive growth, with a total generation of 8.065 billion kWh in the first half of 2025, an increase of 8.34% year-on-year [3]. - The average utilization hours for wind farms increased by 23 hours year-on-year to 1,235 hours, exceeding the national average [3]. - The company added 287.45 MW of new wind power capacity in the first half of 2025, bringing total controllable capacity to 6,874.80 MW [3]. Cost Management and Shareholder Returns - The company has effectively reduced costs, with sales, management, and financial expenses decreasing by 37.68%, 4.05%, and 12.23% respectively in the first half of 2025 [4]. - The board has proposed a cash dividend of 883 million yuan for the 2024 fiscal year, representing 52.81% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [4]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 23.977 billion yuan, 27.268 billion yuan, and 30.024 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 12.2%, 13.7%, and 10.1% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 2.330 billion yuan, 2.698 billion yuan, and 3.084 billion yuan for the same years [4].