日度策略参考-20250827

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver, Copper, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Pork, Bitumen (bullish on short - term rebound), Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), Combustion Fatigue [1] - Bearish: Asphalt, Short - fiber, Hemp, Urea (limited upside), PE (price oscillates weakly), Container Shipping to Europe [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Treasury Bonds, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, TV4E, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coke, Coal Coke, Cotton, Sugar, New - season Corn, New - season Soybeans, Pulp, Logs, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, PVC, Spot Goods [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market liquidity is still abundant, with A - share trading volume exceeding 2 trillion, and the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the previous high of "924". Under internal and external favorable factors, market sentiment is good, and stock index futures may continue to run strongly [1]. - The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - The dovish stance of the Fed Chairman boosts the September interest - rate cut expectation, which is beneficial to precious metals and copper prices in the short term [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal sector, most varieties are affected by macro - sentiment and their own fundamentals, showing different trends such as oscillation and rebound [1]. - In the black metal sector, most varieties are in an oscillating state due to neutral valuation, unclear industrial drive, and warm macro - drive [1]. - In the agricultural product sector, different varieties are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, seasonal factors, and policy, showing different trends [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products are affected by factors such as production capacity, supply - demand relationship, and macro - policy, with different investment ratings [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock Index Futures: May continue to run strongly due to abundant liquidity and good market sentiment [1] - Treasury Bonds: Oscillate as the asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks [1] - Gold and Silver: Bullish as the Fed Chairman's dovish stance boosts the September interest - rate cut expectation [1] - Copper: Bullish as the Fed Chairman's dovish stance boosts the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation [1] - Aluminum: Oscillates as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation rises, but domestic downstream demand is under pressure in the off - season [1] - Alumina: Consider far - month long - position layout opportunities as production and inventory increase, but bauxite shipments decline in the rainy season in Guinea [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Zinc: Rebounds due to improved macro - sentiment, but the upside space is limited due to large domestic fundamental pressure [1] - Nickel: Oscillates and rebounds following the macro - situation, with attention paid to supply and macro - changes. Long - term excess of primary nickel still suppresses prices [1] - Stainless Steel: Oscillates and rebounds in the short term, affected by the macro - situation. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills and short - term trading opportunities [1] - Tin: The tin price is boosted by improved macro - sentiment, with short - term weak supply and demand. Pay attention to the seasonal maintenance of Yunnan smelters [1] Energy and Chemicals - TV4E: Oscillates due to supply resumption in the southwest and northwest, large hedging pressure, and strong market sentiment [1] - Polysilicon: Oscillates with long - term production - capacity reduction expectation, low terminal installation willingness, and considerable profits [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Oscillates due to frequent resource - end disturbances and limited subsequent restocking space after large short - term restocking by downstream [1] Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil: Oscillate as the valuation returns to neutral, the industrial drive is unclear, and the macro - drive is warm [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillates as the near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month has upward opportunities [1] - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: Oscillate, following the black - metal sector in the short term with long - term anti - involution [1] - Glass and Soda Ash: Oscillate weakly as the reality is weak, and the market focuses on fundamentals [1] - Coke and Coal Coke: Oscillate weakly as the steel inventory accumulates faster than seasonally, and the market suppresses supply by lowering steel prices [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil: Have different price trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationship, production reduction, and policy [1] - Cotton: Increases in the short term, with the near - month squeeze - out logic dominant. Pay attention to the time window and quota release [1] - Sugar: Runs strongly but with limited upside. Pay attention to the 5600 - 6000 range [1] - New - season Corn and New - season Soybeans: Oscillate at low levels or due to factors such as harvest pressure and import - cost support [1] - Pulp: Consider the 11 - 1 reverse spread as the 11 - contract is under pressure from old warehouse receipts [1] - Logs: Oscillate between 790 - 810 yuan/m³ as the valuation is reasonable [1] - Pork: Bullish as the near - month contract is weak, and there are peak - season expectations for 11 and 01 contracts [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: May rebound in the short term as the previous pessimistic expectation is corrected, OPEC+ continues to increase production, and there is a short - term rebound demand [1] - Asphalt: Bearish as the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified [1] - Natural Rubber and BR Rubber: Have different trends due to factors such as rainfall in domestic producing areas, inventory, and market sentiment [1] - PTA and Ethylene Glycol: Have different supply - demand situations and price trends [1] - Short - fiber and Hemp: Bearish due to factors such as increased factory maintenance and weakening market trading [1] - Urea: Oscillates with limited upside due to weak export sentiment and insufficient domestic demand, but with cost - end support [1] - PE, PP, and PVC: Oscillate due to factors such as maintenance, orders, and macro - sentiment [1] - LPG: Runs strongly due to factors such as capacity reduction expectations, tariff extensions, and supply - demand changes [1] Other - Container Shipping to Europe: The freight rate is expected to decline as the September supply exceeds the same - period level, and the high - price quotes are expected to converge [1]