国投期货农产品日报-20250827

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Buy Rating: Soybean No. 1, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Sell Rating: Rapeseed Meal, Corn, Live Pigs [1] - Neutral Rating: Eggs [1] Core Views - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade. Different products have different trends and investment opportunities. For example, some products are expected to rise, while others may continue to be weak [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean No. 1 - The price of Soybean No. 1 shows a weak decline due to the government's competitive sale of soybeans, increasing supply pressure and weak demand. The price difference between Soybean No. 1 and Soybean No. 2 has rebounded from a low level. Short - term attention should be paid to policies and the performance of imported soybeans [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Affected by the auction of imported soybeans, the price of Dalian soybean meal futures continues to fall. The strengthening of global oils may drive up soybean crushing. The supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but there may be a shortage in the first quarter of next year. The long - term view on Dalian soybean meal is cautiously bullish [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The domestic soybean and palm oil markets continue to be weak. The medium - term overseas palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle. Long - term development trends of biodiesel in the US and Indonesia still exist. Consider buying on dips with a larger fluctuation space and risk control [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - In the rapeseed sector, the meal is weak and the oil is strong. The domestic rapeseed sector is in a short - term shock - consolidation pattern, and the price center may decline [6] Corn - The auction of imported corn by Sinograin continues, with a low transaction rate. The good growth of US corn and the good weather in domestic corn - producing areas may lead to a bumper harvest. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The spot and futures prices of live pigs are weak. The supply pressure is high in the second half of the year. Policy aims to promote capacity reduction, but the inflection point has not been seen. Pig prices are expected to remain weak in the medium term [8] Eggs - Egg futures continue to increase positions and reach new lows, while spot prices rise. There may be a seasonal rebound in spot prices. The probability of significant capacity reduction in the second half of the year is high, and it is advisable to consider buying futures contracts for the first half of next year on dips [9]