专题报告：鲍威尔放鸽带动人民币走升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The dovish remarks from Powell at the global central bank annual meeting increased the certainty of a September interest rate cut in the US, causing the US dollar index to weaken in recent trading days. The recent appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is mainly driven by the weak US dollar, and there are also positive domestic signals. If the stock market rally continues, the RMB exchange rate may gain new support. It is recommended to pay attention to domestic policy guidance [2][17][19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Exchange Rate Market Situation - Since last Friday, the exchange - rate market has seen amplified fluctuations due to the global central bank annual meeting. The US dollar index has weakened, non - US currencies have strengthened, the RMB has appreciated against the US dollar but depreciated against a basket of currencies, and the on - shore, offshore, and mid - price of the RMB have converged [2][10][17] - In April, the RMB exchange rate reached a high of 7.4295 and then appreciated. Recently, it has strengthened again, reaching a low of 7.1407 (offshore). The US dollar index has dropped from around 103 to below 100, and the RMB exchange - rate index has been declining unilaterally since April [3] Factors Affecting the US Dollar - This year, overseas uncertainties and geopolitical risks have increased, and the US dollar's fluctuations are centered around the Trump administration, Fed policies, and the US economy. The impact of tariffs is stabilizing, and future attention will focus on how macro data affects Fed policies [17] - Powell's dovish remarks increased the certainty of a September interest rate cut, and Trump's intention to remove Fed governor Cook may increase his control over the Fed, challenging the Fed's independence. The US dollar index has weakened and broken the rebound trend since July [2][17] Factors Affecting the RMB - The recent appreciation of the RMB is mainly due to the weak US dollar. Domestically, the central bank has increased the issuance of offshore central - bank bills in August, with new issuance of 45 billion and net financing of 30 billion after deducting maturities. The mid - price has strengthened, signaling an intention to stabilize the exchange rate [2][19] - The stock market has reached a 10 - year high in the past two months, but the rally has not driven the RMB exchange rate up as foreign investors have mainly reduced their bond holdings. If the stock - market rally continues, the RMB exchange rate may get new support [19]