Soochow Securities·2025-08-27 11:48Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [68]. Core Viewpoints - July sales data shows that production, wholesale, and retail volumes met expectations, while exports exceeded expectations [5][7]. - The market structure indicates a recovery in domestic sales shares for Dongfeng and Foton, while Weichai's market share has declined [6][8]. - The overall industry performance in July was strong, with significant year-on-year growth in production and sales figures [7][20]. Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - In July, wholesale sales of heavy trucks reached 85,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 45.6% and a month-on-month decline of 13.3%, aligning with expectations [4]. - Terminal sales for July were 64,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 38.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 7.2%, also meeting expectations [4]. - Export sales for July were 27,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 25.4% and a month-on-month decline of 7.5%, surpassing expectations [4][20]. - The current total industry inventory stands at 133,000 units, with a decrease of 1,040 units in July, indicating a reasonable inventory level [21]. Market Structure Tracking - The market share for terminal sales in July was as follows: Jiefang 21.3%, Dongfeng 21.8%, Heavy Truck 15.9%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 10.3%, and Foton 13.8% [6][41]. - In terms of export market share, Heavy Truck led with 46.9%, followed by Jiefang 15.9% and Dongfeng 9.9% [43]. - The penetration rate for new energy heavy trucks was 25.8%, while the penetration rate for natural gas heavy trucks was 21.8%, both showing variations compared to previous periods [7][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as China National Heavy Duty Truck and Weichai Power, highlighting the performance improvement potential of Jiefang and Foton [8][63].