国投期货软商品日报-20250827

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: White star [1] - Log: White star [1] - Natural Rubber: White star [1] - 20 - rubber: White star [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★★★ [1] 2. Core Views - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is still volatile, and it is advisable to buy on dips [2]. - The upward movement of US sugar faces pressure, and the production of the 25/26 domestic sugar season is uncertain, so the follow - up weather and cane growth should be monitored [3]. - The market is bullish on apples, but the supply side lacks positive drivers, and it is advisable to wait and see [4]. - The short - term demand for rubber is expected to weaken, with increased supply, decreased natural rubber inventory and increased synthetic rubber inventory, so it is advisable to wait and see [5]. - Pulp supply is relatively loose, demand is average, and it is advisable to wait and see or trade within a range [6]. - The supply - demand situation of logs has improved, but the peak - season demand has not started, so it is advisable to wait and see [7]. 3. Summary by Category Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton fell slightly today, with stable spot basis and average spot trading. In July, 50,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 149,400 tons and a month - on - month increase of 22,600 tons. 200,000 tons of sliding - duty processing trade quotas were issued, which have a limited impact on the overall supply. The new cotton pre - sale volume is large, but the impact is expected to be controllable. The short - term trend is volatile, and it is advisable to buy on dips [2]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Due to insufficient precipitation, the sugarcane yield per unit in Brazil decreased, and the production progress was slow, resulting in a significant year - on - year decrease in sugarcane and sugar production. However, the sugar - making ratio increased, and the sugar price faced pressure. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly. The sales were fast this year, and the inventory decreased year - on - year. The market focus is on imports and the next season's output forecast. The syrup import volume decreased significantly this year, but the output of the 25/26 season is uncertain [3]. Apple - The futures price increased with positions. There is a divergence between long and short positions. The price of early - maturing apples is high, which raises the market's expectation for the price of late - maturing apples. However, the supply - side lacks positive drivers, and the cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected. It is advisable to wait and see [4]. 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR first rose and then fell. The domestic natural rubber price was stable with a slight increase, and the synthetic rubber price was stable with a slight decrease. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, and the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants has rebounded. The demand is expected to weaken in the short term, with increased supply, decreased natural rubber inventory and increased synthetic rubber inventory. It is advisable to wait and see [5]. Pulp - Pulp futures continued to fall today. The port inventory in China increased by 1.6% month - on - month to 2.132 million tons as of August 21, 2025. The pulp supply to China in June increased by 6.1% year - on - year. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. It is advisable to wait and see or trade within a range [6]. Log - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price was stable. The arrival volume decreased last week. The overseas price has rebounded for two consecutive months, and the domestic import is expected to remain low. The downstream daily出库 volume is about 60,000 cubic meters, and the inventory decreased by 0.33% month - on - month to 3.05 million cubic meters as of August 22. The supply - demand situation has improved, but the peak - season demand has not started. It is advisable to wait and see [7].