2025年消费金融ABS存续期研究：消费金融ABS发行活跃，资产表现有波动，证券端兑付仍然良好

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the consumer finance ABS market, highlighting significant growth in issuance and market share [1][22]. Core Insights - The consumer finance ABS market has shown active issuance, with a notable year-on-year increase in both the number of issuances and total issuance volume, reaching 331 issuances and a total of 283.83 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, representing growth rates of 63.86% and 76.66% respectively [1][22]. - The market share of consumer finance ABS within the total ABS market has increased, now accounting for 25.90%, up by 8.99 percentage points from the end of the previous year [1]. - The report notes an expansion of market participants, with trust companies and internet institutions being the primary issuers, collectively accounting for 92.79% of the issuance volume [6][22]. - The underlying asset performance has shown volatility, but most projects have met expectations, with the cumulative default rates for bank-issued ABS being lower than those from consumer finance companies [14][21]. - The credit risk for priority securities has been decreasing, with a significant number of securities experiencing upgrades in their ratings, reflecting improved asset pool quality and transaction structure [21][22]. Summary by Sections Consumer Finance ABS Market Overview - The consumer finance ABS market has seen a robust increase in issuance, with 331 issuances totaling 283.83 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, marking a 63.86% increase in issuance count and a 76.66% increase in volume compared to the previous year [1][22]. - The market is dominated by the exchange market, which issued 178 consumer finance ABS, accounting for 47.50% of the total issuance volume [3][6]. Market Participants Expansion - The report highlights the entry of new market participants, particularly internet-based lending companies, which have accelerated their involvement in the consumer finance ABS market [6][22]. - Trust companies and internet institutions have been the main contributors to the issuance, with trust companies alone issuing 233 consumer finance ABS worth 181.37 billion yuan, a 91.06% increase year-on-year [6][10]. Performance of Existing Consumer Finance ABS - As of July 2025, there are 616 active consumer finance ABS projects with a total outstanding amount of 448.35 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.44% increase from the previous year [12]. - The cumulative default rates for bank-issued ABS are close to their predicted rates, while consumer finance companies show a wider range of default rates, indicating varying asset quality [14][16]. Credit Risk and Securities Performance - The report indicates that the credit risk for priority securities has been decreasing, with 138 out of 304 tracked securities experiencing upgrades in their ratings [21]. - The overall performance of consumer finance ABS has been in line with expectations, with most projects maintaining low cumulative default rates [19][22].