Minsheng Securities·2025-08-27 13:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Insights - The company successfully issued REITs for warehouse and logistics infrastructure, contributing to investment income and maintaining a dividend of CNY 0.145 per share, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [1]. - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of CNY 50.5 billion, a decrease of 10% year-on-year, primarily due to falling freight rates. However, gross profit increased by 6.8% to CNY 3.1 billion, with a gross margin of 6.1% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 was CNY 19.5 billion, flat year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 3.9% [2]. - Investment income reached CNY 1.17 billion, up 19.8% year-on-year, with CNY 439 million coming from the REITs [2]. - The company’s major joint venture, DHL, reported a net profit of CNY 912 million in the first half of 2025, down 38.7%, contributing CNY 456 million to the company's investment income [2]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - For Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 26.8 billion, down 17% year-on-year, while gross profit was CNY 1.72 billion, up 4.2% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 2025 was CNY 13.0 billion, a 14% increase year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 4.9% [3]. - The company expects to generate approximately CNY 1.793 billion from the sale of a 25% stake in a subsidiary, with an estimated cash inflow of CNY 4.442 billion [3]. Business Segment Performance - In the freight forwarding segment, revenue for the first half of 2025 was CNY 29.628 billion, down 15.49% year-on-year, while gross profit increased by 17.26% to CNY 2.003 billion [4]. - The professional logistics segment reported revenue of CNY 14.323 billion, down 5.86%, with a gross profit of CNY 1.075 billion, down 4.43% [4]. - The e-commerce segment saw revenue growth of 7.28% to CNY 6.571 billion, but gross profit fell by 65.85% to CNY 0.025 billion [4]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company maintained a dividend of CNY 0.145 per share for the first half of 2025, resulting in a dividend yield of 2.6% based on the closing price on August 26, 2025 [4]. - The total amount for dividends and share buybacks reached CNY 1.494 billion, accounting for 76.7% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [4]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of CNY 110.3 billion, CNY 114.5 billion, and CNY 119.5 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of CNY 4.2 billion, CNY 4.5 billion, and CNY 4.7 billion [5][6]. - The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 10 for 2025, decreasing to 9 for 2026 and 2027 [5][6].