原油展望报告：月差开始回落，大供应叙事继续

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the outlook of the crude oil market in August 2025, suggesting a long - term bearish view on oil prices due to increasing supply and gradually loosening supply - demand dynamics [7][8] Group 2: Core Views - Fundamentally, supply - demand is gradually becoming looser, with supply expected to continuously increase, and further loosening is foreseeable after the end of the demand peak season. Non - fundamentally, the Russia - Ukraine peace process regarding potential sanctions is the biggest short - term disturbance, and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting was dovish in the short - term and hawkish in the long - term. It's recommended to short at high prices [8] - The current comprehensive indicator of crude oil fundamentals is neutral with the latest signal being negative, and the forward - looking indicator is also neutral with the latest signal being negative [11] Group 3: Review and Summary 7 - month Crude Oil Outlook Report Review - The July view was that from a long - term perspective, oil prices were still bearish as the consumption peak season would gradually end. In the short - term, there were many supply - side disturbances. In early August, oil prices oscillated downward due to cracking decline, tariff policies, and optimism about the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. However, strong EIA data and a change in market sentiment about the peace talks led to a rebound in the second half of the month [7] 8 - month Crude Oil Outlook Report - Fundamentally, supply - demand is gradually loosening, and terminal demand shows some resilience. Supply is expected to increase, and further loosening is expected after the demand peak season. Non - fundamentally, the Russia - Ukraine peace process and Powell's speech are key factors. The conclusion is that from the month - spread scale, the shift to a looser supply - demand situation is becoming a reality, and it's advisable to short at high prices [8] Group 4: Crude Oil Market Analysis Crude Oil Fundamental Indicators - The current comprehensive indicator of crude oil fundamentals is neutral, with the latest signal being negative, touching 4 days out of 5 trading days from 8/7 to 8/13. The forward - looking indicator is also neutral, with the latest signal being negative from 7/31 to 8/1. The comprehensive indicator describes the current situation, and the forward - looking indicator focuses on future trends [11] Global Near - month Spread - Global near - month spreads generally declined in August, indicating a slowdown in spot supply - demand. Some markets' month - spreads are flattening, and the Middle East market's spreads are relatively strong, which is related to China's imports [14] Crack Spreads - Global crack spreads were generally stable in August, and strengthened to varying degrees in the second half of the month. Although downstream demand is okay, the supply increase from both OPEC+ and non - OPEC+ has weakened the near - end spreads [16][17] Global Spot Crack Spreads (Detailed Version) - Global diesel crack spreads strengthened after a period of decline. As the gasoline consumption peak season ends and the diesel demand season approaches, diesel crack spreads will support the downstream of crude oil [19] EIA Weekly Report - As of August 15, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6014,000 barrels, exceeding expectations. The decrease was due to strong demand from overseas exports and high refinery operating rates. The diesel market's structural issues may strengthen the distillate crack spreads and refinery demand. Overall, the report implies demand resilience, which can slightly correct the market's pessimistic expectations in the short - term [23] Major Energy Agencies' August Reports - IEA and EIA significantly raised supply expectations for the second consecutive month, while OPEC maintained its non - OPEC+ supply expectations. All three agencies' reports suggest that the oil market is moving towards a record surplus [24] Key Changes in Major Energy Agencies' Monthly Reports - IEA and EIA continuously raised supply expectations, and as the traditional consumption peak season ends, the supply - demand surplus will become more significant. OPEC's adjustment of its 2026 forecast is to justify future production increases [25] Russia - Ukraine Peace Process - The main differences between Russia and Ukraine are in territory and security issues. The peace process is a short - term disturbance to the oil market, and after the initial optimism, it may be bullish for oil prices but won't change the long - term bearish trend [26] Powell's Speech at Jackson Hole - Market generally interprets Powell's speech as dovish, but it is dovish in the short - term and hawkish in the long - term. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September is high, but it depends on data. The Fed's preventive rate cuts are generally bearish for crude oil [27]