Minsheng Securities·2025-08-27 13:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company has shown resilience in profits despite a decline in revenue, driven by strong performance in natural gas sales and refining business [2][3]. - The company is a leading player in the domestic oil and gas sector, with abundant upstream resources and a complete downstream industrial chain [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 14,501.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 839.9 billion yuan, down 5.4% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6,969.9 billion yuan, a 6.1% year-on-year decline, while net profit was 371.9 billion yuan, down 13.6% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s oil and gas equivalent production reached 924 million barrels in the first half of 2025, an increase of 2.0% year-on-year, with natural gas production rising by 3.8% [3]. Business Segment Performance - The refining and natural gas sales segments showed significant profit growth, with operating profits of 51.1 billion yuan and 51.2 billion yuan respectively in Q2 2025, reflecting increases of 44.7% and 14.0% year-on-year [2]. - The demand for refined oil products has shown marginal improvement, with a notable increase in kerosene demand [4]. - The chemical segment has been optimizing its product structure, with a 4.9% increase in chemical product volume in the first half of 2025 [5]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.22 yuan per share, totaling 402.7 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 47.8% [5]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1,513.86 billion yuan, 1,544.60 billion yuan, and 1,620.84 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.83, 0.84, and 0.89 yuan per share [6][7].