Hopewind(SH:603063) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-27 13:48Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market has support from over - production inspection expectations at the bottom and is restricted by the demand for finished products at the top. In the short term, the futures market may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern. Before the terminal demand in the peak season is verified, it is not recommended to short coking coal for unilateral speculation, and the market should be treated with an oscillation mindset. Coke may face downward price pressure later, and the industry can consider participating in selling hedging according to the situation [4]. - The market has gradually shifted the focus of the game to the demand performance of downstream finished products. The poor demand for finished products in the past two weeks and the decline in high - frequency data have raised concerns about peak - season demand, which will also limit the upside potential of coking coal and coke [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management - Price Forecast: The monthly price forecast for coking coal is in the range of 1060 - 1350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. For coke, the price range is 1600 - 1800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13% [3]. - Risk Management Strategy: For inventory hedging, when seven rounds of coke price increases have been fully implemented and the possibility of further increases is low, coke producers worried about future price drops can short the J2601 contract of coke at an entry range of (1750, 1800) [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - Positive Factors: There are still expectations of "anti - involution" in coal mines, and the production increase space for mines in the second half of the year may be limited. Safety accidents in some mines may trigger concerns about strict safety supervision. There is room for policy expectation games before the Fourth Plenary Session in October [6]. - Negative Factors: The apparent demand for rebar is poor, and there is pressure on the actual end of finished products. After seven rounds of coke price increases, steel mills' profits have shrunk, and they are resistant to the eighth round of price increases [4][7]. 3.3 Market Data - Black Warehouse Receipt Data: On August 27, 2025, compared with the previous day, the warehouse receipts of rebar increased by 23021 tons, hot - rolled coils decreased by 1499 tons, coking coal decreased by 800 hands, etc. [3]. - Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices: The report provides detailed data on the futures and spot prices of coking coal and coke on August 27, 2025, including basis, cost, and price changes compared with previous days and weeks [7][8]. - Import and Export Profits: It shows the import and export profits of coking coal and coke, such as the import profit of Mongolian coal (long - term contract) being 333 yuan/ton, and the export profit of coke being 351 yuan/ton [9].