Novoray(SH:688300) Great Wall Securities·2025-08-27 13:49Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price relative to the industry index over the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading domestic supplier of functional powder materials, expected to benefit from the explosive growth in advanced packaging, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.7% in the global advanced packaging market from 2023 to 2029 [5]. - The company's high-end products, particularly spherical inorganic powders, are experiencing significant growth, driven by the expanding market for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) packaging materials and increasing demand for high-performance electronic circuit substrates [3][4]. - The financial performance shows a strong upward trend, with a 17.12% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, and a 18.01% increase in net profit [11]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company expects revenue of 712 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5%. By 2027, revenue is projected to reach 1,637 million yuan, with a growth rate of 12.5% [15]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 174 million yuan in 2023, increasing to 488 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 17.0% [15]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 12.9% in 2023 to 20.2% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [15]. Revenue Breakdown - In the second quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 281 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.55%, and a net profit of 76 million yuan, up 19.94% from the previous quarter [9][10]. - The revenue from spherical inorganic powders and others is projected to be approximately 2.0 to 2.1 billion yuan in the second quarter of 2025, accounting for 74% of total revenue [3]. Market Trends - The demand for advanced packaging materials is accelerating due to developments in AI, high-performance computing (HPC), and automotive sectors, which is expected to drive the market for functional advanced powder materials [4]. - The company is focusing on high-end product research and development to capitalize on these market trends, particularly in the areas of thermal materials for electric vehicles and high-performance circuit boards [4].