镍、不锈钢：震荡偏强，关注后续新能源支撑

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel and stainless steel markets are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias, and attention should be paid to the subsequent support from the new energy sector [1] - The intraday trend of nickel and stainless steel was oscillating, with limited improvement in fundamentals and a warming expectation of interest rate cuts in September at the macro - level. There were no obvious logical changes in fundamentals [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - The price range forecast for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3] - The price range forecast for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.27% and a historical percentile of 1.8% [3] Risk Management Strategies Nickel - Inventory Management: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, short Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3] - Procurement Management: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3] Stainless Steel - Inventory Management: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, short stainless steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [4] - Procurement Management: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [4] Market Situation Analysis Core Contradictions - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel was oscillating, with limited fundamental improvement and a warming expectation of interest rate cuts in September at the macro - level. Indonesia is expected to slightly lower the first - phase benchmark price in September, with a firm premium. There was rainfall in some mining areas in the Philippines during the week, and there is an overall rainfall expectation in September, with limited overall impact. The price of nickel iron remained firm, and the new tender price of a large southern factory was 940 yuan/ton. The salt plants in the new energy chain were relatively strong, the MHP market was in short supply, and some traders raised the coefficient due to shortages. New energy vehicle sales remained strong, and subsequent support still existed. The intraday trend of stainless steel was also oscillating, some spot prices rose slightly, and attention should be paid to the sentiment trend approaching the peak demand season in September and October [5] Positive Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula and include elements such as iron and cobalt - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota permit period from three years to one year - The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may increase the demand for stainless steel - The expectation of interest rate cuts in September has increased [7] Negative Factors - Stainless steel has entered the traditional off - season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow - The inventory of pure nickel is high - The seasonal inventory of nickel ore has increased, and the bottom support has loosened - Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist - South Korea plans to impose anti - dumping duties on China's hot - rolled products [7] Market Data Nickel - Futures Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,760 yuan/ton, up 1390 yuan or 1% from the previous day; the closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous contract 1 was 120,370 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 0.05%; the closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous contract 2 was 120,480 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.02%; the closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous contract 3 was 120,700 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or 0.02%; the LME nickel 3M price was 15,280 US dollars/ton, down 305 US dollars or 0.07% [7] - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume was 196,852 lots, up 108,077 lots or 121.74% from the previous day; the open interest was 98,903 lots, down 10,364 lots or 9.49% [7] - Warehouse Receipts: The number of warehouse receipts was 22,025 tons, down 61 tons or 0.28% [7] - Basis: The basis of the main contract was - 1040 yuan/ton, up 510 yuan or - 32.9% [7] Stainless Steel - Futures Prices: The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,850 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0% from the previous day; the closing price of stainless steel continuous contract 1 was 12,840 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or - 0.31%; the closing price of stainless steel continuous contract 2 was 12,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or - 0.23%; the closing price of stainless steel continuous contract 3 was 12,975 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.08% [8] - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume was 128,526 lots, up 25,799 lots or 25.11% from the previous day; the open interest was 128,304 lots, down 5355 lots or - 4.01% [8] - Warehouse Receipts: The number of warehouse receipts was 100,851 tons, down 175 tons or 0.17% [8] - Basis: The basis of the main contract was 630 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 6.78% [8] Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel was 40,872 tons, down 1019 tons from the previous period - The LME nickel inventory was 209,220 tons, up 72 tons from the previous period - The stainless steel social inventory was 933.4 tons, down 0.2 tons from the previous period - The nickel pig iron inventory was 33,111 tons, down 304 tons from the previous period [9]