KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-08-27 14:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to falling coal prices, but it has high dividend potential and growth prospects. The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on these factors [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 744.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.9% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 77.1 billion yuan, down 21.3% year-on-year - The adjusted net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 76.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.7% year-on-year - For Q2 2025, the operating revenue was 360.4 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 6.11% - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 was 37.3 billion yuan, down 6.31% quarter-on-quarter [5][6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 163.7 billion yuan, 181.3 billion yuan, and 186.2 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -15.3%, +10.8%, and +2.7% - The expected EPS for the same period is 1.23 yuan, 1.37 yuan, and 1.40 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 9.8, 8.8, and 8.6 times respectively [5][8] Coal Business Performance - In H1 2025, the coal business generated operating revenue of 605.7 billion yuan, down 22.1% year-on-year - The average selling price of self-produced coal was 470 yuan per ton, a decrease of 19.5% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 263 yuan, down 10.2% year-on-year [6] Non-Coal Business Performance - The non-coal business, including coal chemical, mining equipment, and financial services, showed mixed results - The coal chemical business achieved operating revenue of 93.6 billion yuan, down 13.6% year-on-year, but benefited from lower raw material costs [6] Dividend Potential and Strategic Initiatives - The company has the potential to increase its dividend payout, with a current dividend of 0.166 yuan per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 1.38% - The company is enhancing its smart mining capabilities and developing a "coal-electric-chemical" integrated industrial chain, with significant investments in new projects [7]