山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250827

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Gold and silver prices show different trends today, with gold strong and silver weak. The short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, leading to a decline in risk - aversion demand. The risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, employment weakens, inflation is moderate, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut rebounds. It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating strongly in the short - term, oscillating at a high level in the medium - term, and rising step - by - step in the long - term [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor of the silver price. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly increased [6]. Summary by Directory Gold - Price Performance: Comex gold and London gold have risen, while domestic gold prices such as the closing price of the Shanghai Gold Exchange's main contract and gold T + D have also shown different degrees of increase. The basis and spreads, and ratios have also changed [2]. - Position and Inventory: Comex gold and Shanghai Gold Exchange's main contract positions have decreased, while gold T + D positions have increased. LBMA inventory remains unchanged, Comex gold inventory has decreased, and Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold inventory has increased [2]. - Strategy: Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [3]. - Net Position Ranking: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures companies' members in the Shanghai Gold Exchange have different changes in net positions and daily ratios [4]. Silver - Price Performance: The closing price of the Comex silver main contract has risen, while the London silver price has fallen. Domestic silver prices such as the closing price of the Shanghai Silver Exchange's main contract and silver T + D have decreased [7]. - Position and Inventory: Comex silver positions have increased, while Shanghai Silver Exchange's main contract positions have decreased, and silver T + D positions have increased. Silver inventories in different places have different changes, and the total explicit inventory has slightly decreased [7]. - Strategy: Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [7]. - Net Position Ranking: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures companies' members in the Shanghai Silver Exchange have different changes in net positions and daily ratios [8]. Fundamental Key Data - Fed - related Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25. The Fed's total assets have decreased slightly, and M2 has increased year - on - year [9]. - Other Key Indicators: The ten - year US Treasury real yield, the US dollar index, and the US Treasury yield spreads have all changed. US inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic survey data have also shown different trends. Central bank gold reserves in different countries and regions have different changes, and some currency - related ratios have also changed [9][11][13]. - Fed Interest Rate Expectation: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in different meeting dates from September 2025 to December 2026 is different [14].