橡胶甲醇原油：偏空情绪主导，能化偏弱运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the content. 2. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 on Wednesday showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The price center of the contract during the session moved down slightly to 15,760 yuan/ton. At the close, the price closed 1.35% lower at 15,760 yuan/ton. The backwardation of the 9 - 1 spread converged to 955 yuan/ton. With the divergence between long and short in the rubber market and the improvement of macro - expectations competing with the negative industrial factors, it is expected that the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 on Wednesday showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating weakly, and falling slightly. The contract price rose to a maximum of 2,396 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,371 yuan/ton. At the close, it fell 1.70% to 2,372 yuan/ton. The backwardation of the 9 - 1 spread widened to 125 yuan/ton. Affected by the decline in domestic coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol, it is expected that the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 may maintain a weakly volatile trend in the future [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 on Wednesday showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, weakening, and closing sharply lower. The contract price rose to a maximum of 493.3 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 478.0 yuan/barrel. At the close, it fell 3.62% to 479.7 yuan/barrel. As the South American geopolitical factors are digested, crude oil has returned to the market dominated by the weak supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 may maintain a weakly volatile trend in the future [5]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons or 1.71% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decrease of 4.70%, and the general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decrease of 1.28%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 3.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.57 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.32 percentage points [8]. - In the week ending August 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a slight week - on - week increase of 2.76 percentage points and a significant year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a slight week - on - week increase of 2.35 percentage points and a significant year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points. During the period, the production schedules of the overhauled enterprises basically returned to normal operation, driving a restorative increase in the weekly capacity utilization rate, and the enterprises basically maintained normal sales [8]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7% respectively. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12% respectively, and the growth rates of production and sales were 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points higher than those from January to June [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [9]. - In July 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and an increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9]. Methanol - In the week ending August 22, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 80.65%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.65%, a slight month - on - month decrease of 1.01%, and a slight year - on - year increase of 4.82%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.8974 million tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 34,100 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons, and a significant increase of 150,000 tons compared with 1.7474 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - In the week ending August 22, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.45%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.32%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was maintained at 8.80%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.37%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 85.68%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.88%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.12%, with a week - on - week increase of 0%. The average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.30%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.58 percentage points and a slight month - on - month increase of 2.88% [10]. - As of August 22, 2025, the futures margin profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 172 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week decline of 20 yuan/ton and a slight month - on - month increase of 31 yuan/ton [10]. - In the week ending August 22, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 934,200 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 43,100 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 347,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 144,600 tons. As of the week of August 21, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 310,900 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 15,200 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 29,000 tons, and a significant decrease of 99,700 tons compared with 410,600 tons in the same period last year [11]. Crude Oil - In the week ending August 15, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 412, a slight week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 71 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.382 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 55,000 barrels per day and a slight year - on - year decrease of 18,000 barrels per day [11]. - In the week ending August 15, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 421 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 6.014 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 5.345 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 23.47 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 419,000 barrels. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 403 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 223,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 96.6%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.2 percentage points, a slight month - on - month increase of 1.1 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 4.3 percentage points [12]. - As of August 19, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 120,209 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 3,467 contracts and a significant decrease of 62,961 contracts or 34.37% compared with the July average of 183,170 contracts. As of August 19, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 176,893 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 22,927 contracts and a significant decrease of 43,183 contracts or 19.62% compared with the July average of 220,076 contracts. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly month - on - month, and the net long positions in the Brent crude oil futures market also decreased significantly month - on - month [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,900 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 15,760 yuan/ton | - 125 yuan/ton | - 860 yuan/ton | + 75 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,270 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | 2,372 yuan/ton | - 23 yuan/ton | - 102 yuan/ton | - 2 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 470.2 yuan/barrel | - 0.5 yuan/barrel | 479.7 yuan/barrel | - 16.4 yuan/barrel | - 9.5 yuan/barrel | + 15.9 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The related charts include the rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][19] - Methanol: The related charts include the methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, methanol port inventory in China, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32] - Crude Oil: The related charts include the crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [40][42][44]