市场情绪转弱，钢矿震荡回落

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar showed a weak and volatile trend, with a daily decline of 0.48%. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar in the off - season remain poor, and the steel price is under pressure. However, the cost increase limits the downward space. In the short term, it is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil declined in a volatile manner, with a daily decline of 0.92%. The demand for hot - rolled coil shows good resilience, which supports the price. But the fundamentals have not improved under the high - supply pattern. The cost increase and production - restriction disturbances are relatively positive factors. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.64%. The demand for iron ore shows certain resilience, which supports the price. However, the fundamentals have not been substantially improved, and the valuation is relatively high, with weak upward driving force. It is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - From January to July, China completed 394.6 billion person - times of cross - regional population movement, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%. The traffic fixed - asset investment reached 1.95 trillion yuan. In July, the volume of commercial freight reached 497 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to July, the volume of commercial freight reached 33 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [6]. - In 2025, the national plan is to start the renovation of 25,000 old urban residential areas. From January to July, 19,800 old urban residential areas started renovation. Six regions including Hebei, Liaoning, etc. had a start - up rate of over 90% [7]. - From January to July, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 4,020.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4% [8]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and Tangshan billet decreased, while the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap remained unchanged. The prices of 61.5% PB powder decreased, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained stable. The sea freight, SGX swap, and Platts Index also showed certain changes [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of rebar futures was 3,111 yuan, with a decline of 0.48%. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased. - The closing price of hot - rolled coil futures was 3,349 yuan, with a decline of 0.92%. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased. - The closing price of iron ore futures was 775.5 yuan, with a decline of 0.64%. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased [11]. 4. Related Charts - The charts show the inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, the production situation of steel mills, etc., including weekly changes, total inventory, and seasonal trends [13][18][26]. 5. Future Market Judgment - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern remains weak, with continuous inventory accumulation. The weekly output decreased, but the profit per ton is acceptable, and the sustainability of production reduction needs to be tracked. The demand is at a low level, and the steel price is under pressure. It is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend [33]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply increased, and the demand showed good resilience. However, the high - supply pattern has not improved the fundamentals. The cost increase and production - restriction disturbances are positive factors, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate [33]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern changed little. The demand showed certain resilience, but the fundamentals have not been substantially improved, and the valuation is relatively high. It is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend [34].