有色日报：国内宏观氛围冷却-20250827

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Core Views - Today, copper prices showed a trend of increasing positions and declining. The macro - level atmosphere cooled, the equity market declined from a high level, and commodities generally weakened. In the industrial sector, market trading sentiment further weakened near the end of the month. With the weakening of the domestic macro - atmosphere and the rebound of the overseas US dollar index, copper prices are under pressure. Attention should be paid to the support at the 79,000 mark of Shanghai copper [4]. - Last night, Shanghai aluminum significantly increased positions and rose. During the day, the main contract price fluctuated narrowly above 20,800. Although the domestic commodity atmosphere cooled today, aluminum prices showed strength. In the industrial sector, as reported by SMM, with aluminum prices remaining at a high level, the downstream's purchasing fear of high prices is increasing. Technically, aluminum prices face technical pressure at the previous high [5]. - Last night, nickel prices stabilized and rebounded. During the day, they rose first and then fell. The main contract price generally fluctuated above 122,000. The cooling domestic atmosphere has little impact on nickel. In the industrial sector, the trading of nickel ore is fair, and ore prices remain stable. The continuous increase in domestic nickel ore port inventories and refined nickel inventories suppresses nickel prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the 122,000 mark [6]. Group 3: Summary of Industry Dynamics - Copper: Zijin Mining produced 570,000 tons of mined copper and 41 tons of mined gold in the first half of the year [8]. - Aluminum: Starting from the settlement on August 28, 2025 (Thursday), the trading margin ratio and daily limit range of cast aluminum alloy futures contracts will be adjusted. The daily limit range will be adjusted to 5%, the hedging position trading margin ratio to 6%, and the general position trading margin ratio to 7%. As of August 26, the total daily social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi was 32,373 tons, an increase of 405 tons from the previous trading day and 914 tons from last Tuesday (August 19) [9]. - Nickel: Today, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel is in the range of 121,700 - 124,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 123,150 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel is 2,400 - 2,600 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel is - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [9]. Group 4: Summary of Related Charts - Copper: The report includes charts of copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][14][12]. - Aluminum: The report includes charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [22][28][24]. - Nickel: The report includes charts of nickel basis, LME inventory, Shanghai nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, and LME nickel trend [34][36][40].