原油累库叠加现货承压，震荡偏弱格局持续

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report The short - term trend of crude oil is expected to be weak with oscillations, and attention should be paid to the persistence of geopolitical events. The supply side presents a mix of positive and negative factors, and the demand side is at the end of the peak season with refinery profits under pressure. The significant inventory build - up and the deepening of the contango structure intensify the pressure on near - term prices. The upside potential of oil prices is restricted by inventory pressure and marginal supply increase. If Russia's export plan is actually realized or the geopolitical premium fades, oil prices may continue the weak oscillatory trend, with the short - term support for WTI at $62 - 63 per barrel and resistance at $65 per barrel [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - 主力合约与基差: As of August 26, the SC crude oil continuous contract price slightly declined to 496.1 yuan per barrel, up 0.65% from the previous day, but closed at 487 yuan per barrel at night, down 2.19% from the day session. WTI and Brent main contracts fell 2.21% to $63.31 and $66.69 per barrel respectively. The SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads strengthened to $2.58 and $5.96 per barrel respectively, and the Brent - WTI spread slightly narrowed to $3.38 per barrel. The SC far - month contango (spread between contract 1 and contract 3) widened to - 4.3 yuan per barrel, indicating increasing pressure on the spot side [2] - 持仓与成交: The SC crude oil main contract fluctuated sharply, with prices rising first and then falling, and the night - session decline exceeded 2%. The geopolitical disturbances and Fed policy expectations drove capital fluctuations. The medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts increased by 954,000 barrels to 5.721 million barrels on August 26, and fuel oil warehouse receipts also increased by 26,600 tons, reflecting the surplus pressure in the physical market [3] 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - 供给端: Iraq's crude oil exports in July reached 104.7 million barrels (3.38 million barrels per day). Russia planned to increase its western port crude oil exports by 200,000 barrels per day in August, but 17% of its refining capacity (1.1 million barrels per day) was disrupted by Ukrainian drone attacks. Iran's exports declined in August due to US sanctions and logistics constraints, and Alberta in Canada sought investment in the Japanese refining industry [4] - 需求端: The interruption of Russia's refining capacity and the seasonal peak in gasoline demand may suppress the actual increase in crude oil re - exports. Global refinery margins remained low, and attention should be paid to the trends of US strategic reserves and the end of the seasonal demand in the Northern Hemisphere [5] - 库存端: US Cushing and commercial crude oil inventories continued to accumulate. The medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts increased significantly, and fuel oil warehouse receipts also rose, reflecting the surplus pressure in the spot market. The interruption of Russian refining may indirectly increase overseas crude oil inventory pressure [6] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - 期货价格: SC price was 496.1 yuan per barrel, WTI was $63.31 per barrel, and Brent was $66.69 per barrel. OPEC's basket price remained unchanged at $70.45 per barrel [9] - 现货价格: Various crude oil spot prices showed different changes, with Oman up 0.64%, Shengli up 0.61%, etc. [9] - 价差: The SC - Brent spread widened to $2.58 per barrel, the SC - WTI spread to $5.96 per barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread slightly narrowed to $3.38 per barrel [9] - 其他资产: The US dollar index, S&P 500, DAX index, and RMB exchange rate also had corresponding changes [9] - 库存: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 1.41%, Cushing inventory increased by 1.82%, and US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.06% [9] - 开工: The US refinery weekly operating rate was 96.6%, up 0.21% [9] 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - 期货价格: FU was 2,880 yuan per ton, down 0.93%; LU was 3,529 yuan per ton, up 0.09%; NYMEX fuel oil was 228.59 cents per gallon, down 2.71% [10] - 现货价格: Different fuel oil spot prices had various changes, such as IF0380 in Singapore up 2.71% [10] - 纸货价: High - sulfur 180 and 380 in Singapore (near - month) showed slight declines [10] - 价差: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread was not available, and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread widened to 649 yuan per ton [10] - Platts: Platts (380CST) and Platts (180CST) prices increased [10] - 库存: Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 6.53% [10] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Supply - Iraq's oil exports in July reached 104.7 million barrels. Russia planned to increase its western port crude oil exports by 200,000 barrels per day in August, but there were uncertainties due to drone attacks and maintenance. Iran's exports declined in August, and Canada's Alberta province considered investing in the Japanese refining industry [11][12] 3.3.2 Demand Ukrainian attacks disrupted at least 17% of Russia's refining capacity, and there was a shortage of gasoline in some regions due to seasonal peak demand [13] 3.3.3 Inventory Low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures receipts remained unchanged, medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts increased by 954,000 barrels, and fuel oil futures warehouse receipts increased by 26,600 tons [14] 3.3.4 Market Information As of 2:30 closing, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.21%, the Shanghai silver main contract fell 0.30%, and the SC crude oil main contract fell 2.19%. Trump's dismissal of the Fed governor increased concerns about the Fed's independence and enhanced the expectation of interest - rate cuts [14][15] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., to visually display the industry data [16][20][22]