近期供应弹性增大，油价回调难改PX偏强格局

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite the oil price correction, the PX market remains strong due to increased supply elasticity in the short - term [2] - The PTA market faces supply - side pressure in the long - run, and its demand may be negatively affected by weak terminal orders [3] - The polyester market shows a weak recovery in terminal demand, but there are concerns about inventory accumulation suppressing profit margins [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA&PX - On August 26, the PX主力合约 closed at 6994.0 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 162.0 yuan/ton. The PTA主力合约 closed at 4870.0 yuan/ton, up 0.16%, with a basis of 10.0 yuan/ton [3] - Cost - end: On August 26, the Brent oil主力合约 closed at 68.2 dollars/barrel, and WTI at 64.74 dollars/barrel [3] - Demand - end: On August 26, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 547.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 514.93 million meters [3] - Supply - end: The PX supply side faces loosening pressure, and the cost support weakens during the international oil price decline. The PTA supply side has short - term positive factors but long - term pressure [3] - Demand - end: The downstream polyester start - up is at a low level, and the terminal order improvement is limited. The contradiction between high polyester start - up and weak terminals remains [3] - Inventory - end: The current PTA social inventory is decreasing, but it may turn to inventory accumulation if demand does not improve significantly [4] 3.1.2 Polyester - On August 26, the short - fiber主力合约 closed at 6622.0 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous trading day. The East China market spot price was 6585.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5] - Supply - side: From August 18 to August 26, PX and PTA futures prices showed an upward trend, with PX rising 234 yuan/ton (+3.46%) and PTA rising 124 yuan/ton (+2.61%) [5] - Demand - side: The 15 - day moving average trading volume of the China Light Textile City increased from 482.73 million meters to 514.93 million meters (+6.67%), indicating a weak recovery in terminal demand [5] - Inventory - side: The polyester short - fiber inventory is 6.65 days, higher than the five - year average of 4.96 days (+34.1%), while the polyester filament inventories are generally lower than historical averages [5] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The主力合约 price, trading volume, and open interest all increased on August 26 compared to the previous day [6] - PX spot: The China main port CFR price remained unchanged, while the South Korea FOB price increased slightly [6] - PTA futures: The主力合约 price, trading volume, and open interest all increased, and the basis decreased [6] - PTA spot: The China main port CFR price remained unchanged [6] - Short - fiber futures: The主力合约 price, trading volume, and open interest all increased, and the basis decreased significantly [6] - Short - fiber spot: The East China market mainstream price remained unchanged [6] - Other industrial chain prices: Most prices remained stable, with slight changes in some products such as polyester bottle chips [6][7] - Processing spreads: The naphtha processing spread increased, while the PTA processing spread decreased slightly [7] - Light Textile City trading volume: The total volume increased, with short - fiber fabric trading volume rising significantly and long - fiber fabric trading volume decreasing [7] - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [7] - Inventory days: The inventory days of polyester short - fiber, POY, FDY, and DTY all decreased [7] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - Multiple statements were made regarding the Fed's possible interest - rate cuts and the geopolitical situation, which may affect the market sentiment [8] 3.3.2 Supply - Demand (Demand) - On August 26, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 547.0 million meters, a 1.11% increase from the previous day [9] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts related to PX, PTA, short - fiber futures and spot prices, basis, capacity utilization, processing profits, and trading volumes [10][12][14]