银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250827

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply - side pressure in the egg market is still significant, with the in - production inventory at a high level compared to the same period in previous years. The release of cold - stored eggs also exerts downward pressure on prices, resulting in falling egg prices during the peak season. Without large - scale and extensive over - culling in the short term, the short - selling logic holds, and investors can consider short - selling at high prices [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Contract Prices: JD01 closed at 3354, down 22 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3431, down 44; JD09 closed at 2896, down 20 [3]. - Spread Changes: The 01 - 05 spread was - 77, up 22; the 05 - 09 spread was 535, down 24; the 09 - 01 spread was - 458, up 2 [3]. - Ratio Changes: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.55, down 0.01; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.53, down 0.02; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.30, down 0.02. The 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.10, up 0.01; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.21, down 0.01; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 0.97, up 0.01 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - Egg Prices: The average price in the production areas was 3.08 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the sales areas was 3.32 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin. Prices in most regions showed an upward trend [3][6]. - Culled Chicken Prices: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 4.69 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day [3][9]. 3.3 Fundamental Information - Inventory and Supply: In July, the national in - production laying hen inventory was 1.356 billion, an increase of 0.016 billion from the previous month and a 6.1% year - on - year increase. The estimated in - production laying hen inventories for August, September, October, and November 2025 are 1.356 billion, 1.360 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [7]. - Chick Hatch and Culling: In July, the monthly chick hatch of sample enterprises was 39.98 million, a 2% month - on - month and 4% year - on - year decrease. In the week of August 14, the culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas was 14.42 million, a 5% increase from the previous week, and the average culling age was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - Sales and Inventory: As of the week of August 14, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7605 tons, a 1% increase from the previous week. As of the week of August 7, the average inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.17 days from the previous week, and the average inventory in the circulation link was 1.03 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from the previous week [8]. - Profit Situation: As of August 14, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week. On August 8, the expected profit per laying hen was 11.92 yuan/feather, a decrease of 2.02 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Single - sided Trading: Consider short - selling at high prices [11]. - Arbitrage Trading: Short the near - month contracts before the Spring Festival and long the far - month contracts after the Spring Festival [11]. - Options Trading: Sell call options [11].