银河期货棉花、棉纱日报-20250827

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Date: August 27, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 14075, down 25; trading volume was 192,722 hands, an increase of 39913; open interest was 508,803, an increase of 739 [3] - CF05 contract closed at 14030, down 25; trading volume was 7,362 hands, an increase of 247; open interest was 55,039, an increase of 188 [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13760, down 20; trading volume was 20,444 hands, a decrease of 2381; open interest was 44,086, a decrease of 12520 [3] - CY01 contract closed at 20095, down 65; trading volume was 81 hands, an increase of 32; open interest was 377, a decrease of 3 [3] - CY05 contract closed at 20395, unchanged; trading volume was 1 hand, unchanged; open interest was 6, unchanged [3] - CY09 contract closed at 20205, up 125; trading volume was 33 hands, unchanged; open interest was 517, a decrease of 9 [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 15342 yuan/ton, up 107; CY IndexC32S was 20760 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Cot A was 78.90 cents/pound, unchanged; FCY IndexC33S was 21880 yuan/ton, down 11 [3] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 76.57 cents/pound, down 0.68; Indian S - 6 was 54000 rupees/candy, unchanged [3] - Polyester staple fiber was 7450 yuan/ton, up 70; pure polyester yarn T32S was 11030 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Viscose staple fiber was 12900 yuan/ton, unchanged; viscose yarn R30S was 17250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Spreads - Cotton inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 45, unchanged; 5 - 9 spread was 270, down 5; 9 - 1 spread was - 315, up 5 [3] - Cotton yarn inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 300, down 65; 5 - 9 spread was 190, down 125; 9 - 1 spread was 110, up 190 [3] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 6020, down 40; CY05 - CF05 was 6365, up 25; CY09 - CF09 was 6445, up 145 [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1445, up 8; sliding - scale domestic - foreign cotton spread was 794, up 8; domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 1120, up 11 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - In the US cotton main production area (92.9% output share), the average temperature was 83.51°F, 1.82°F lower than the same period last year; the average rainfall was 0.82 inches, 0.06 inches higher. In Texas, the average temperature was 84.78°F, 4.22°F lower, and the average rainfall was 0.51 inches, 0.46 inches higher. The growth progress is lagging, but the good - quality rate is high [6] - As of the week ending August 23, the total cotton harvesting progress in Brazil (98%) was 60.3%, a 11.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, 15.8% slower than the same period last year, mainly due to the lag in Mato Grosso [6] - As of August 23, 2025, the cotton planting area in India for the 2025/26 season was 10.787 million hectares, 352,000 hectares lower than the same period last year, a 3.2% year - on - year decline. The planting area growth is slowing [7] - The total volume of the 2025 cotton import sliding - scale tariff processing trade quota is 200,000 tons, issued on a contract - based application basis [7] Trading Logic - Macroscopically, after the recent China - US talks, tariffs are likely to be extended by 90 days, and China's anti - involution policies have a positive impact on commodities. Fundamentally, the cotton supply is still tight, and whether additional sliding - scale tariffs will be issued is the key supply - side factor. Demand is expected to improve from the off - season to the peak season in August. Overall, the short - term market is likely to be slightly stronger and volatile [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is likely to be slightly stronger and volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger and volatile in the short term with limited upward space [11] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [12] - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [13] Cotton Yarn Industry News - This week, Zhengzhou cotton strengthened again. The cotton yarn market had fair transactions, and spinning mills reduced inventory by selling at market prices, but there was resistance to price increases. The yarn price is expected to be stable in the short term [13] - The cotton grey fabric market price was slightly weak, and the overall trading atmosphere was still weak. Weaving mills mainly digested inventory, and there were no conditions for price increases [13] Group 4: Options - Volatility: Today, the 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.0918, slightly lower than the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601C14000 was 10.8%, CF601P13600 was 10%, and CF601P13400 was 10.3% [15] - Option Strategy Suggestion: Today, the PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7638, and the volume PCR was 0.6056. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased. The option strategy is to wait and see [16][17] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the domestic - foreign cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, CY - CF spreads, and cotton inter - period spreads [20][23][28][29]