银河期货白糖日报-20250827

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [2] - Date: August 27, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [4] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closing price 5,631, down 47 (-0.83%), volume 4,579 (down 2,199), open interest 9,042 (down 2,316) [5] - SR01: Closing price 5,620, down 12 (-0.21%), volume 147,466 (down 63,662), open interest 363,151 (down 2,979) [5] - SR05: Closing price 5,586, down 13 (-0.23%), volume 5,530 (down 3,583), open interest 30,114 (up 318) [5] Spot Market - Sugar Spot Prices: Ranging from 5,905 (Kunming) to 6,370 (Xi'an), with price changes from -40 (Wuhan) to 0 (Bayuquan, Rizhao, Xi'an) [5] - Basis: Ranging from 274 (Kunming) to 739 (Xi'an) [5] Monthly Spread - SR5 - SR01: Spread -34, down 1; SR09 - SR5: Spread 45, down 34; SR09 - SR01: Spread 11, down 35 [5] Import Profit - Brazil Import: Quota - in price 4,489, out - of - quota price 5,719, difference with Liuzhou 301, with Rizhao 331, with futures -88 [5] - Thailand Import: Quota - in price 4,479, out - of - quota price 5,705, difference with Liuzhou 315, with Rizhao 345, with futures -74 [5] Group 3: Market Analysis Important Information - Brazil: As of August 20, 70 ships waiting to load sugar (down from 76), 2.9169 million tons of sugar waiting (down from 3.3179 million tons) [7] - Domestic Processed Sugar: Some processed sugar quotes were lowered on the 27th, overall trading was average [8][9] - Brazil's Production Forecast: Conab lowered the 2025/26 sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons (down 3.1% from April), ethanol production to be affected [10] Logic Analysis - International: Brazil at supply peak, global inventory may enter accumulation phase. Sugar production is low due to low cane crush and sugar content. Final output is uncertain, and external sugar is expected to be range - bound [11] - Domestic: Fast domestic sugar sales, low inventory, but large imports. Domestic sugar prices are affected by international prices, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow external trends [11] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to follow external sugar trends and fluctuate in a narrow range [12] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [13] - Options: Consider selling relatively out - of - the - money wide - straddle options [14] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts related to sugar market data such as monthly inventory, industrial inventory, sales rate, spot prices, spreads, and basis [17][23][27][31][34]