聚烯烃（塑料PP）日报-20250827

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on polyolefins (plastic PP) dated August 27, 2024, prepared by the Commodity Research Institute's Energy and Chemicals Research Department [2] - The report includes relevant data, market analysis, trading strategies, and relevant charts [3][5][11] Group 2: Relevant Data Plastic and PP Futures and Spot Prices - Plastic futures prices (L2605, L2509, L2601) decreased by -0.62%, -0.50%, -0.51% respectively; PP futures prices (PP2605, PP2509, PP2601) decreased by -0.44%, -0.37%, -0.35% respectively [4] - Spot prices of North China linear and East China linear decreased by -0.41% and -0.27% respectively; North China drawstring and East China drawstring decreased by -0.15% and -0.43% respectively [4] Basis and Spread - Plastic 09, 01, 05 basis increased by 7, 8, 16 respectively; PP 09, 01, 05 basis decreased by -4, -5, 1 respectively [4] - Plastic 9 - 1 spread increased by 1, 1 - 5 spread increased by 8; PP 9 - 1 spread decreased by -1, 1 - 5 spread increased by 6 [4] Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil main contract price increased by 0.01%; naphtha price increased by 1.27%; Northeast Asian ethylene price increased by 1.20%; Shandong propylene price remained unchanged [4] Profits - Plastic import profit decreased by 5.82%, oil - made PE profit increased by -627.48%; PP import profit decreased by 2.76%, oil - made PP profit increased by -28.44% [4] Production Ratios - Linear production ratio remained unchanged at 36.1%, PE maintenance ratio remained unchanged at 14.1%; PP drawstring production ratio and maintenance ratio data were unavailable [4] Group 3: Market Analysis Market Review - In the plastic spot market, prices in North China, East China, and South China showed partial declines or fluctuations; in the PP spot market, prices in North China, East China, and South China decreased [6] Relevant Information - Main producers' inventory was 70.5 tons, a decrease of 2.5 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 3.42%; inventory in the same period last year was 72 tons [7] Logical Analysis - New plastic production capacity will slow down in the second half of the year, while PP will face the launch of a 900,000 - ton new device in Ningbo Daxie Phase II, with greater production pressure than PE [9] - Inventory maintenance is expected to decline significantly in the fourth quarter; there is still an expectation of peak - season demand in "Golden September and Silver October", downstream start - up has rebounded, but the current pace is slow, and orders are weaker year - on - year [9] - Plastic is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, while PP will be range - bound [9] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Single - side: Plastic is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, while PP will be range - bound [10] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [11] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [11] Group 5: Relevant Charts - The report includes 18 charts showing the price trends, basis, spreads, upstream prices, profits, production ratios, and inventory of plastic and PP contracts [12][15][17][20][24][27][31][34][38]