铜价上行空间短期受限，后续仍需宏观推手发力

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the copper market may remain oscillating at a high level, with the core drivers being the marginal weakening of supply - demand and the differentiation of macro - sentiment. The upward space for copper prices is limited due to the supply - side relief of tightness expectations, demand - side drag from high - price suppression of procurement and weak terminal orders, and the suppression of risk appetite by the rebound of the US dollar [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: On August 25, the SHFE main contract closed at 79,360 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.11% from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premium and discount, the premium of premium copper dropped to 165 yuan/ton, that of flat - water copper decreased to 95 yuan/ton, and the premium of wet - process copper dropped by 50% to 15 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) maintained a discount of 78.38 US dollars/ton, with weak support at the spot end [1]. - Position and Trading Volume: LME inventory continuously declined, reaching 22,917 tons on August 25, a new low in nearly a month, while domestic SHFE inventory slightly decreased to 155,000 tons. The narrowing of import losses to 250 yuan/ton repaired the inverted spread between the domestic and foreign markets, which may limit the activity of arbitrage funds [2]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: There are both short - term disturbances and long - term increments. Codelco resumed production at the El Teniente copper mine, strengthening the expectation of supply recovery in Chile. In China, Tibet Summit's copper production increased by 29.9% year - on - year, but Xingye Yinxing's copper production decreased by 44.2% year - on - year, showing a differentiation in mine expansion. Reduced import arrivals made the recent supply tight, but the gradual replenishment of domestic electrolytic copper may ease the gap [3]. - Demand Side: There is a structural differentiation in domestic demand, and the suppression effect of high copper prices is significant. The domestic sales of air conditioners increased by 14.3% year - on - year, and the computing power infrastructure drove copper use in the intelligent field. However, the weak orders of cable enterprises and the 5.44% decrease in the finished product inventory of refined copper rods reflected the insufficient carrying capacity of the real economy. The weakening of export demand further restricted the consumption elasticity [4]. - Inventory Side: The mainstream copper inventory in China dropped to 123,000 tons on August 25, but SMM predicted that the rebound of import arrivals this week and the consumption suppression by high prices would drive the inventory to rebound month - on - month. The LME inventory overseas continued to decline, but the COMEX inventory reached 272,500 short tons, and the pressure of hidden inventory still needed to be vigilant [5]. Market Summary - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the copper market may remain oscillating at a high level, with the core drivers being the marginal weakening of supply - demand and the differentiation of macro - sentiment. The supply - side relief of tightness expectations and the demand - side drag, along with the suppression of risk appetite by the rebound of the US dollar, limit the upward space for copper prices [6]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On August 26, 2025, the price of SMM:1 copper was 79,780 yuan/ton, a 0.36% increase from August 25. The premiums of premium copper, flat - water copper, and wet - process copper all decreased, with the wet - process copper's premium dropping by 50%. The SHFE price was 79,360 yuan/ton, a 0.11% decrease from August 25. The LME inventory decreased by 830 tons, a 3.5% decline [8]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - As of August 25, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.87 million tons month - on - month to 12.30 million tons, and it is expected to rebound this week. Codelco announced the resumption of production at some mines in Chile. In July 2025, China's copper product output was 2.169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. Last week, some refined copper rod enterprises reduced production due to maintenance, with raw material inventory decreasing by 2.31% and finished product inventory decreasing by 5.44%. The ICSG reported a global copper surplus of 36,000 tons in June [9]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions, Shanghai copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [10][12][14][15][19][22][24][28][29][32] Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - The analysis of copper futures market data includes market data (price and basis changes, inventory changes), industry chain supply - demand (supply increase from mine resumption and domestic production, demand affected by high prices and export decline), and price trend judgment (high - level oscillation affected by supply, demand, and macro factors such as the US dollar and crude oil). The copper price is expected to be in the range of 78,500 - 80,500 yuan [36][37]