资产配置日报：有变化-20250827
HUAXI Securities·2025-08-27 15:20

Market Performance - On August 27, the domestic stock market experienced high volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3800.35, down 1.76% [1][2] - The CSI 300 Index also fell by 1.49%, closing at 4386.13, while the convertible bond index dropped by 2.82% [1][2] - The trading volume in the A-share market reached 3.20 trillion yuan, marking the largest decline since April 8 [4][5] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed mixed performance, with the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rising by 0.40bp and 0.65bp to 1.77% and 1.99%, respectively [2][3] - The central bank's net liquidity withdrawal amounted to 236.1 billion yuan, indicating a tightening of liquidity as the month-end approaches [3][4] - The bond market's yield adjustments are seen as a defensive response to uncertainties in the equity market, with key resistance levels identified at 1.80% for the 10-year and 2.05% for the 30-year bonds [4][5] Investment Sentiment and Trends - The sentiment in the commodity market weakened, with significant declines in key "anti-involution" related products such as polysilicon and coking coal, which fell by 4.9% and 3.9%, respectively [7][8] - The report highlights a shift in investor behavior, with a notable increase in redemption pressure on bond funds, particularly from financial companies [3][4] - Despite the market's downturn, there remains a potential for recovery in the bond market if institutional investors begin to increase their positions [3][6] Policy and Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the current market adjustment is influenced by three main factors: a cooling of policy expectations, insufficient fundamental support, and a decline in macro risk appetite [8][9] - The understanding of "anti-involution" policies is evolving, with a shift towards market-driven approaches rather than administrative measures [8][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring ETF fund inflows and financing balances as indicators of market stability and investor confidence [7][9]