东鹏控股（003012）：需求弱势，但盈利能力迎来改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 2.9 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 220 million yuan, an increase of 4% year-on-year [2][4]. - The second quarter revenue is anticipated to be 1.9 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 250 million yuan, up 12% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of approximately 470 million yuan and 580 million yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to valuations of 16 and 13 times [6]. Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of approximately 30.3% in the first half of the year, with a slight year-on-year decline in tile gross margin to 31.5% and an increase in sanitary ware gross margin to 22.4% [11]. - The net profit margin for the first half of the year was approximately 7.5%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, with the second quarter net profit margin reaching 12.8%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [11]. - The cash flow from operating activities for the first half of the year was 440 million yuan, an increase of 210 million yuan year-on-year, indicating improved operational quality and collection capabilities [11]. Market Dynamics - The company has seen a 5.9% year-on-year increase in revenue from the retail channel for tiles, with high-value product revenue growing by 19.5% [11]. - The company has opened 133 new stores and upgraded 168 existing ones, indicating a focus on expanding its retail presence [11]. - The supply exit in the tile industry is significant, with a projected 12% year-on-year decline in ceramic tile production in 2024, leading to a reduction in the number of enterprises in the industry [11].