金信期货日刊-20250828

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The polysilicon futures price has been declining, mainly due to supply - demand imbalance, cost reduction, and policy and market sentiment. It is expected to be volatile and bearish in the future. Investors and related enterprises should pay close attention to supply - demand dynamics, cost changes, and policy directions [3]. - The stock index futures market is expected to shift from an upward trend to high - level oscillation. The A - share market opened higher, oscillated upwards, and then gradually declined [6][7]. - The gold market is expected to have short - term small - scale platform oscillations. The probability of a September interest rate cut has increased, which is favorable for gold [10][11]. - The iron ore market is in narrow - range consolidation today, and attention should be paid to the lower support. There is a risk of negative feedback due to the erosion of steel mill profits [14][15]. - The glass market is oscillating today and is testing the lower support again. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation approaching the peak season [18][19]. - The palm oil market has seen large cumulative increases recently. With rising inventory pressure and lack of demand support, the market's upward momentum has decreased, and it should be treated with a bearish bias [21]. - The pulp market is still restricted by high inventory, and downstream demand has not improved. It is expected to remain in low - level oscillation before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polysilicon Futures - On August 27, the closing price of the polysilicon main contract was 48,680 yuan, a decrease of 2,505 yuan or 4.89% from the previous day [3]. - Supply has increased, with production rising to 101,000 tons in June, remaining high from July to August, and futures warehouse receipts increasing by 240 lots to 3,020 lots [3]. - Demand has been weak, with a 13% year - on - year decline in global metallic silicon demand in 2025, and limited improvement in aluminum alloy demand due to pressure on the real estate sector [3]. - Coal price drops have reduced production costs, and exchange measures have curbed speculation, leading to some capital outflows [3]. Stock Index Futures - The State Council issued a significant document to implement the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, and the national industrial enterprise profits from January to July decreased by 1.7% [6]. - The A - share market opened higher, oscillated upwards, and then gradually declined [7]. Gold - The Fed Chairman released positive signals at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. The weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient [11]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is in narrow - range consolidation today, and attention should be paid to the lower support [14]. - High iron - water production continues, but the pattern of strong raw materials and weak finished products remains, and there is a risk of negative feedback due to profit erosion of steel mills [15]. Glass - The glass market is oscillating today and is testing the lower support again [18]. - Daily melting is basically stable, factory inventories continue to accumulate, and the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation approaching the peak season [19]. Palm Oil - The palm oil market has seen large cumulative increases recently. With rising inventory pressure and lack of demand support, the market's upward momentum has decreased, and it should be treated with a bearish bias [21]. Pulp - The pulp market is still restricted by high inventory, downstream demand has not improved, and procurement remains average. The price of coniferous pulp in Shandong has been lowered today. It is expected to remain in low - level oscillation before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season [25].