综合晨报：商务部9月将出台扩大服务消费的若干政策-20250828

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index): The US dollar index is expected to move in a volatile manner [15]. - US Stock Index Futures: The upward trend of US stocks has not reversed. After a short - term correction, investors can still buy on dips [19]. - Stock Index Futures: Allocate evenly among various stock indices [22]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Be cautious with naked long positions on a single side. If there are stock positions, consider using long bonds to hedge potential stock corrections [25]. - Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal): The futures price is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the development of Sino - US relations and the weather in US soybean - producing areas [27]. - Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil): In the short term, the oil market is expected to remain volatile. Wait for the release of Malaysian palm oil data for August and the USDA's September supply - demand report [30]. - Agricultural Products (Cotton): In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be volatile. The upside space is limited. In the fourth quarter, the market for new cotton is not optimistic [34]. - Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil): Adopt a short - term volatile trading strategy for steel prices [39]. - Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke): The futures price has short - term adjustment pressure, but there is strong support below after the adjustment [42]. - Agricultural Products (Corn Starch): The current corn starch price difference has fallen to a low level. The space for further weakening is expected to be small. Pay attention to the driving factors for widening the spread [44]. - Agricultural Products (Corn): Hold short positions and 11 - 3 inverse spreads. If the 11 - 1 spread strengthens significantly, also pay attention to inverse spread opportunities [45]. - Agricultural Products (Hogs): Hold a short - term view of a volatile and weak trend for single - side trading. Continuously look for inverse spread opportunities [48]. - Black Metals (Steam Coal): The coal price is expected to continue its seasonal weakness [50]. - Black Metals (Iron Ore): The iron ore price is expected to be volatile. The molten iron output is expected to decline by 3 - 40,000 tons next week and then rebound. However, the overall black metal fundamentals are becoming more burdensome [52]. - Agricultural Products (Red Dates): Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Focus on the weather in the producing areas and subsequent on - the - spot research [55]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead): In the short term, adopt a wait - and - see approach for both single - side trading and arbitrage [57]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc): For single - side trading, maintain a wait - and - see view. For arbitrage, pay attention to medium - term positive spread opportunities. For domestic - foreign spreads, maintain a positive spread strategy before overseas inventories bottom out [60]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate): Pay attention to opportunities for buying on dips and positive spreads [63]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper): For single - side trading, recommend buying on dips. For arbitrage, maintain a wait - and - see approach [67]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel): In the short term, pay attention to band trading opportunities. For the medium - term, pay attention to opportunities for shorting on rallies [71]. - Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil): Maintain a short - term range - bound trading strategy [73]. - Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda): Be cautious when chasing high prices [76]. - Energy Chemicals (Pulp): The pulp market is expected to be volatile and weak [78]. - Energy Chemicals (PVC): The PVC market is expected to be volatile [81]. - Energy Chemicals (Styrene): The styrene market is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to domestic and foreign policy variables [83]. - Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips): Pay attention to the pressure on processing fees caused by the restart of plants in September and the launch of new production capacity [86]. - Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate): The freight rate is expected to continue to decline [89]. 2. Core Views - Financial Sector: The US dollar index is affected by the EU's potential secondary sanctions on Russia. US stocks are affected by Nvidia's earnings report and the Fed's interest - rate policy expectations. Chinese stock index futures are influenced by policies to expand service consumption and industrial enterprise profits. Treasury bond futures are affected by industrial enterprise profits and the central bank's open - market operations [14][18][21]. - Commodity Sector: Agricultural products are affected by factors such as Sino - US relations, weather, and inventory. Black metals are affected by infrastructure investment, downstream demand, and production restrictions. Non - ferrous metals are affected by macro - economic factors, supply - demand relationships, and enterprise production data. Energy chemicals are affected by inventory, supply - demand, and seasonal factors. Shipping indices are affected by port construction and supply - demand in the shipping market [27][38][56][72][88]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - Ukraine and the US will hold a meeting on the 29th. The French prime minister will meet with the opposition to avoid a trust vote. The EU is considering secondary sanctions on Russia, which may cause the US dollar index to fluctuate [12][13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Nvidia's earnings report is slightly below expectations, but the trend of technology giants increasing AI capital expenditure remains unchanged. With the expectation of interest - rate cuts, US stocks are expected to continue to be volatile and strong [16][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. The decline in industrial enterprise profits in July has narrowed, but the effect of anti - involution policies remains to be seen [20][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - From January to July, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. The central bank conducted 379.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan. Treasury bonds lack the opportunity for continuous upward movement unless the stock market adjusts continuously or the central bank's monetary policy turns unexpectedly loose [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In September, the estimated arrival of imported soybeans at domestic oil mills is about 10.3025 million tons. It is expected that the arrival in October will be 9 million tons and 7.5 million tons in November. Sino - US relations are the most important uncertain factor affecting the futures price [26][27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From August 1st to 25th, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 36.41% month - on - month. The short - term oil market is expected to be volatile, waiting for data guidance [28][30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - New cotton picking in Xinjiang is expected to be advanced. The growth progress of US cotton is slow, but the excellent - good rate is high. The cotton market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the market in the fourth quarter is not optimistic [31][34]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - From January to July, 19,800 urban old - community renovation projects started nationwide. In July, transportation fixed - asset investment was 306.1 billion yuan. Steel prices are expected to be volatile, and the upward space is limited [35][38]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in the southwest is stable. The coking coal futures price has short - term adjustment pressure, but there is strong support below after the adjustment [40][42]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The industry's operating rate has decreased slightly, and inventory has also decreased slightly. The price difference between corn starch and corn has fallen to a low level, and the space for further weakening is limited [43][44]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern ports has decreased, and the grain inventory in the southern ports has increased slightly. The corn market is expected to be weak, and short positions can be held [45]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - The revenue and net profit of Muyuan Co., Ltd. increased significantly in the first half of the year. The short - term hog market is expected to be volatile and weak, and inverse spread opportunities can be explored [47][48]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The import volume of coal in Southeast Asia has decreased. The coal price is expected to continue its seasonal weakness [49][50]. 3.2.10 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Fortescue's iron ore shipments reached 198.4 million tons in FY25. The iron ore price is expected to be volatile, and the molten iron output is expected to decline and then rebound [51][52]. 3.2.11 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The main - producing areas of red dates have entered the sugar - increasing period. The red - date futures price is expected to be volatile, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [54][55]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On August 26th, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of $38.74 per ton. The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [56][57]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On August 26th, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a discount of $4.61 per ton. The zinc market is affected by macro - economic factors and supply - demand relationships. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading, and positive spread opportunities can be explored for arbitrage [58][60]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The phosphoric acid iron - lithium industry has proposed an initiative to resist malicious price competition. The short - term lithium carbonate market is expected to have a bottom - support, and opportunities for buying on dips and positive spreads can be explored [61][63]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The copper market is affected by the Fed's interest - rate expectations and macro - economic factors. The copper price is expected to be volatile at a high level, and buying on dips is recommended for single - side trading [66][67]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Eramet plans to increase its nickel - ore production to 42 million tons this year. The nickel market is affected by supply - demand relationships, and band trading opportunities can be explored in the short term, and shorting on rallies in the medium - term [69][71]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US EIA's commercial crude oil and refined - oil inventories have decreased. The oil price is expected to be range - bound in the short term [72][73]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has increased slightly. The caustic - soda market is expected to be stable in the short term, and caution is required when chasing high prices [74][76]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp has declined. The pulp market is expected to be volatile and weak [77][78]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder has decreased. The PVC market is expected to be volatile [79][81]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports has increased. The styrene market is expected to be volatile, and domestic and foreign policy variables should be monitored [82][83]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable, with some slightly decreasing. The bottle - chip market is expected to be affected by plant restarts and new production capacity [84][86]. 3.2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Portugal plans to invest nearly 4 billion euros in port upgrading. The container freight rate is expected to continue to decline [87][89].