五矿期货文字早评-20250828

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Policy factors, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment all have significant impacts on prices. For example, the Fed's stance affects the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, and the "anti -内卷" policy impacts the iron alloy market. In the short term, most sectors are expected to be volatile, and investors need to pay attention to policy changes, supply - demand dynamics, and market sentiment [3][6][33] Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Stock Index - News: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology promotes the application of satellite - connected terminal devices; global hedge funds increase their bets on Chinese stocks in August; 14 wealth management companies see a net increase of about 1.8 trillion yuan in management scale in July; Zhongji Xuchuang expects mass production and shipment of 1.6T products and samples of liquid - cooled products [2] - Futures Basis Ratio: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis ratios. The trading logic is that although the market may fluctuate in the short term after continuous rises, the general direction is to go long on dips [3] Treasury Bond - Market: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose. The national industrial enterprise profit from January to July decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and the Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to promote service exports. The central bank conducted 4058 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1745 billion yuan [4] - Strategy: The economy shows resilience in the first half of the year, but July's social financing and credit data are weaker than expected. Exports may face pressure. With the central bank's support, funds are expected to be loose. Interest rates may decline, but the stock - bond seesaw effect needs attention, and the bond market may be volatile in the short term [6] Precious Metals - Market: Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver all rose. The New York Fed Chairman's neutral - dovish stance increases the probability of a Fed rate cut. The market expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September and December. Historically, gold benefits from fiscal deficits, and silver is driven by Fed easing expectations. It is recommended to go long on silver at low prices [7][8] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Market: LME copper and Shanghai copper prices decline. LME copper inventory increases, and domestic copper inventory shows different trends. The Fed's dovish stance increases the probability of a September rate cut, but the equity market's optimism fades. Copper prices are expected to be strong and volatile [10][11] Aluminum - Market: LME aluminum and Shanghai aluminum prices decline. Domestic aluminum inventory is low, and demand is expected to improve as the off - season transitions to the peak season. The Fed's dovish signal strengthens the expectation of a September rate cut. Aluminum prices are expected to be supported in the short term [12] Zinc - Market: Shanghai zinc index rises slightly, and LME zinc falls. Zinc ore inventory rises, and refined zinc imports decrease. The Fed's dovish stance strengthens the support for zinc prices, and it is difficult for zinc prices to fall significantly in the short term [13] Lead - Market: Shanghai lead index falls, and LME lead falls. Lead ore inventory rises slightly, and downstream demand recovers. In the short term, lead prices are supported, but there is a risk of decline in the medium term [14][16] Nickel - Market: Shanghai nickel price rises slightly. Nickel ore supply is loose, and stainless steel demand is weak. Although the macro environment is positive, the supply - demand situation restricts nickel price increases. Nickel prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [17] Tin - Market: Shanghai tin price rises slightly. Myanmar's tin production recovery is slow, and domestic tin smelting enterprises' operating rates are low. Electronic and photovoltaic demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [18] Lithium Carbonate - Market: The spot index is flat, and the futures price falls. Lithium mica supply decreases, and the price has bottom support. The market awaits new drivers and needs to pay attention to overseas supply and industry news [19] Alumina - Market: The alumina index falls. Domestic and overseas ore supply disturbances support prices. The Fed's dovish stance drives the non - ferrous sector. The short - term decline space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [20] Stainless Steel - Market: The stainless steel futures price rises slightly. Social inventory increases, and short - term demand is weak. As the peak season approaches, demand is expected to improve [21] Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market: The AD2511 contract rises. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and inventory increases. The cost is supportive, and market activity increases. However, the large futures - spot price difference may cause delivery pressure [22][23] Black Building Materials Steel - Market: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fall. The overall commodity market cools down. Steel production is high, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. If demand does not improve, prices may continue to fall [25][26] Iron Ore - Market: The iron ore futures price falls slightly. Overseas iron ore shipments are stable, and port inventory rises slightly. Steel mill profitability declines, and iron water production growth is limited. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [27][28] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The spot price is stable, and inventory increases slightly. Although the fundamentals are under pressure, the price adjustment space is limited. In the short term, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and in the long term, it depends on policy and demand [29] - Soda Ash: The spot price is stable, and inventory decreases. The downstream glass industry's operating rate changes. Soda ash prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and may rise gradually in the long term, but the upside is limited [30] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fall. The "anti -内卷" sentiment fades, and the market is affected by emotions. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and hedging funds can seize opportunities. Manganese silicon supply pressure remains, and ferrosilicon supply also rises [31][33][34] Industrial Silicon - Market: The industrial silicon futures price rises slightly. The industry has over - capacity, high inventory, and weak demand. The price is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to industry policies [35][36] Polysilicon - Market: The polysilicon futures price falls. The market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. Production increases, and inventory transfers to the futures market. The price may adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to demand and inventory pressure [37] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market: NR and RU are volatile. Bulls expect price increases due to seasonality and demand, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro expectations and weak demand. The medium - term view is bullish, and the short - term view is to be neutral - bullish [39][43] Crude Oil - Market: WTI and Brent crude oil futures rise, while INE crude oil futures fall. U.S. EIA data shows inventory changes. Although geopolitical premiums have disappeared and the macro situation is bearish, the current oil price is undervalued, and it is a good time for left - hand side layout [44] Methanol - Market: The methanol futures price falls. Coal prices rise, domestic and overseas supply increases, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to positive spread opportunities in the future [45] Urea - Market: The urea futures price is stable. Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. Exports are the main demand variable. The price is expected to be range - bound, and it is recommended to go long on dips [46] Styrene - Market: The styrene spot and futures prices fall. The BZN spread is low and has room for upward repair. Supply increases, and inventory accumulates. Demand is rising at the end of the off - season. The price may rebound when inventory decreases [47] PVC - Market: The PVC futures price falls. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The cost support is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [49] Ethylene Glycol - Market: The ethylene glycol futures price falls. Supply increases, and demand recovers from the off - season. The port inventory may accumulate in the medium term, and the valuation may decline [50] PTA - Market: The PTA futures price falls. Supply decreases due to unexpected maintenance, and demand improves. The processing fee is expected to repair, and it is recommended to go long on dips following PX [51] Para - Xylene - Market: The PX futures price falls. PX load is high, and downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance. PX inventory is expected to be low, and the valuation has support. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [52] Polyethylene (PE) - Market: The PE futures price falls. The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance. Inventory is high but decreasing, and demand may improve in the peak season. The price may rise in the long term [53] Polypropylene (PP) - Market: The PP futures price falls. Supply increases, and demand is weak. Inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [55] Agricultural Products Live Pig - Market: Pig prices mostly fall. The short - term logic is to relieve pressure through weight reduction. Policy support may suppress bearish sentiment, and the far - month contract has a reverse spread strategy [57] Egg - Market: Egg prices mostly rise. Supply is stable, and demand is slow. The supply - demand negative cycle remains. It is recommended to reduce short positions or short on rebounds [58] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Market: U.S. soybeans fall slightly, and domestic soybean meal is weak. U.S. soybean production may decrease, but global supply is abundant. The domestic soybean meal market has strong supply and demand. It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost range [59][61] Edible Oils - Market: Domestic edible oils are volatile and weak. Malaysian palm oil exports increase, and production shows different trends. Domestic soybean oil inventory may increase, and rapeseed oil inventory may decrease. The price is expected to be strong and volatile [62][63] Sugar - Market: Zhengzhou sugar futures price falls. Brazil's sugar production may be affected by weather, and the international and domestic sugar supply is expected to increase. The price is likely to continue to fall [64][65] Cotton - Market: Zhengzhou cotton futures price is volatile. The downstream market may improve in the peak season, and domestic inventory is low. The price may rise in the short term [66]