机构调降巴西糖产量预期，白糖短期调整

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets. However, the total annual import volume is still expected to be within the expected range. In July, extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia may have affected sugar cane and sugar beet crops, and the potential impact on sugar production needs continuous monitoring. [1][2] - Most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin is at high risk of heat damage. Currently, the commercial inventory of cotton is decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, so cotton prices are supported. [1][2] - The recommended strategy is to mainly wait and see. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5920.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5845.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15250.0 yuan. [1] Market - The closing price of US sugar is 16.44, with a change of 0.12%. The closing price of US cotton is 66.65, with a change of - 0.03%. [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by summer cold drink demand, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets. [1] - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin pose a high risk of heat damage to cotton. The current commercial inventory of cotton is decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, providing support for cotton prices. [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 14906.0, with a change of - 2.67%. Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 6859.0, with a change of - 1.69%. [1] Data Quick View External Market Quotes - The price of US sugar increased from 16.42 on August 26, 2025, to 16.44 on August 27, 2025, with a change of 0.12%. The price of US cotton decreased from 66.67 to 66.65, with a change of - 0.03%. [3] Spot Prices - The price of sugar in Nanning decreased from 5950.0 yuan to 5920.0 yuan, with a change of - 0.50%. The price of sugar in Kunming decreased from 5860.0 yuan to 5845.0 yuan, with a change of - 0.26%. The cotton index 328 changed from 3281 to 3280, with a change of 0.05%. The price of cotton in Xinjiang increased from 15100.0 yuan to 15250.0 yuan, with a change of 0.99%. [3] Spread Quick View - SR01 - 05 increased from 33.0 to 34.0, with a change of 3.03%. SR05 - 09 increased from - 79.0 to - 45.0, with a change of - 43.04%. SR09 - 01 decreased from 46.0 to 11.0, with a change of - 76.09%. CF01 - 05 remained unchanged at 45.0, with a change of 0.00%. CF05 - 09 decreased from 275.0 to 270.0, with a change of - 1.82%. CF09 - 01 increased from - 320.0 to - 315.0, with a change of - 1.56%. [3] - The basis of sugar 01 decreased from 228.0 to 225.0, with a change of - 1.32%. The basis of sugar 05 decreased from 261.0 to 259.0, with a change of - 0.77%. The basis of sugar 09 increased from 182.0 to 214.0, with a change of 17.58%. The basis of cotton 01 increased from 1234.0 to 1267.0, with a change of 2.67%. The basis of cotton 05 increased from 1279.0 to 1312.0, with a change of 2.58%. The basis of cotton 09 increased from 1554.0 to 1582.0, with a change of 1.80%. [3] Import Prices - The price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 78.9 on August 26 and 27, 2025, with a change of 0.00%. [3] Profit Margin - The profit of sugar imports remained unchanged at 1516.0 on August 26 and 27, 2025, with a change of 0.00%. [3] Options - For SR601C5600, the implied volatility is 0.0854, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying SR601 is 6.39. For SR601P5600, the implied volatility is 0.0837. For CF601C14000, the implied volatility is 0.1079, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying CF601 is 5.66. For CF601P14000, the implied volatility is 0.1044. [3] Inventory Warehouse Receipts - The number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 15315.0 on August 26, 2025, to 14906.0 on August 27, 2025, with a change of - 2.67%. The number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 6977.0 to 6859.0, with a change of - 1.69%. [3]