宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250828

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - The iron ore market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. The supply - demand pattern is stable, but there is a weakening expectation for demand, and the valuation is moderately high with limited upward driving force. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, and the intraday trend is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is the stable supply - demand pattern and the high - level volatility of ore prices [1] Market Driving Logic - On the demand side, steel mills' production is stable, and ore demand is fair, providing support for ore prices. However, there are signs of production restrictions, and steel mills' profits are shrinking, weakening the positive effects. On the supply side, domestic port arrivals have declined, but overseas miners' shipments remain high. The expected arrivals of Australian and Brazilian ores are set to increase according to shipping schedules. Although domestic ore production is restricted, overall ore supply is stable. In summary, ore demand is okay but has a weakening expectation, supply is relatively stable, and the valuation is moderately high, resulting in limited upward driving force for ore prices [2]