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五矿期货能源化工日报-20250828
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-28 01:23

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable, presenting a good opportunity for left - hand side layout. If geopolitical premiums reopen, the oil price will have more upside potential [3] - For methanol, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term for unilateral trading, and pay attention to positive spread opportunities for inter - month spreads after the improvement of supply and demand [5] - For urea, it is suggested to pay attention to going long at low prices as the price downside is limited [7] - For rubber, a medium - term bullish view is maintained. In the short - term, a neutral - to - bullish approach is appropriate, buying on dips with quick entry and exit. Partially close the position of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [15] - For PVC, given the situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [17] - For benzene - ethylene, the BZN spread is expected to repair in the long - term. When the inventory destocking inflection point appears, the benzene - ethylene price may rebound [20] - For polyethylene, the price may oscillate upwards in the long - term [22] - For polypropylene, it is recommended to go long the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [23] - For PX, pay attention to the opportunity of going long following the crude oil at low prices during the peak season [27] - For PTA, pay attention to the opportunity of going long following the PX at low prices after the improvement of downstream performance during the peak season [28] - For ethylene glycol, there is a downward pressure on valuation in the medium - term [29] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.55, or 0.87%, to $63.86; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.55, or 0.82%, to $67.8; INE main crude oil futures fell 16.40 yuan, or 3.36%, to 472.4 yuan [2] - US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.39 million barrels to 418.29 million barrels, a 0.57% decrease; SPR increased by 0.78 million barrels to 404.20 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.24 million barrels to 222.33 million barrels, a 0.55% decrease; diesel inventories decreased by 1.79 million barrels to 114.24 million barrels, a 1.54% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.32 million barrels to 20.13 million barrels, a 1.60% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.29 million barrels to 43.59 million barrels, a 0.68% increase [2] Methanol - On August 27, the 01 contract fell 23 yuan/ton to 2372 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 22 yuan/ton with a basis of - 122. Coal prices continued to rise, costs increased, but enterprise profits were still good. Domestic production started to pick up, and supply increased marginally. Overseas plant operations returned to medium - high levels, and subsequent imports will increase rapidly. The port MTO plant shut down and is expected to resume at the end of the month. Traditional demand is currently weak, but the market still has expectations for the peak season and the return of MTO. The futures market shows signs of stabilization, but port inventories are still rising rapidly [5] Urea - On August 27, the 01 contract remained stable at 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable with a basis of - 47. Daily production is at a high level, and enterprise profits are at a low level, so supply pressure still exists. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer and melamine decreased, and agricultural demand entered the off - season, resulting in weak domestic demand. Exports are advancing, and port inventories are rising again. The main demand variable is exports [7] Rubber - NR and RU oscillated and consolidated. Bulls are optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand expectations, while bears are pessimistic due to weak demand, uncertain macro - expectations, and the possibility that supply benefits may be less than expected. The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased. As of August 21, 2025, the start - up load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, up 1.47 percentage points from the previous week and 6.25 percentage points from the same period last year. The start - up load of domestic semi - steel tires was 74.38%, up 2.13 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.28 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 18, 2024, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.217 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons or 0.34% from the previous period. As of August 24, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 477,000 (- 84,000) tons [10][11][12][13] PVC - The PVC01 contract fell 50 yuan to 4949 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4710 (- 50) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 239 (0) yuan/ton and a 9 - 1 spread of - 147 (- 2) yuan/ton. The cost side remained stable, and the overall start - up rate of PVC was 77.6%, a 2.7% decrease. The downstream start - up rate was 42.7%, a 0.1% decrease. Factory inventories were 306,000 tons (- 21,000), and social inventories were 853,000 tons (+ 41,000). The comprehensive enterprise profit is at a high level this year, with high valuation pressure, low maintenance volume, and high production. Downstream domestic start - up is at a five - year low, and export expectations are weak after the determination of India's anti - dumping tax rate. The cost side has weak support [17] Benzene - Ethylene - The spot and futures prices of benzene - ethylene fell, and the basis weakened. The Shanghai Composite Index pulled back, and the futures price followed. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with large upward repair potential. The cost - side pure benzene start - up rate oscillated moderately, and the supply was still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit decreased, but the benzene - ethylene start - up rate continued to rise. The port inventory of benzene - ethylene continued to accumulate significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the overall start - up rate of three S oscillated and increased [19][20] Polyolefins Polyethylene - The futures price of polyethylene fell. The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side provides support. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. The overall inventory is being destocked from a high level, which will support the price. The seasonal peak season may be coming, and the raw material procurement for agricultural films has started. The overall start - up rate has stabilized at a low - level oscillation [22] Polypropylene - The futures price of polypropylene fell. The integrated plant of CNOOC Daxie Petrochemical was put into operation, and the propylene supply has returned marginally. The downstream start - up rate oscillated at a low level. There are only 450,000 tons of planned production capacity to be put into operation in August. The seasonal peak season may be coming, but there is high inventory pressure under the background of weak supply and demand, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [23] PX & PTA & MEG PX - The PX11 contract fell 54 yuan to 6940 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 10 dollars to 854 dollars. The PX load in China was 84.6%, a 0.3% increase; the Asian load was 76.3%, a 2.2% increase. Some overseas plants restarted. The PTA load was 72.9%, a 3.5% decrease. Some domestic PTA plants had changes such as load reduction, restart, and new production. The PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, with a low overall load center. However, due to the new PTA plant put into operation, PX is expected to maintain low inventory, and the valuation has support at the bottom [25] PTA - The PTA01 contract fell 46 yuan to 4824 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 35 yuan/ton to 4835 yuan. The PTA load was 72.9%, a 3.5% decrease. Some plants had load changes. The downstream load was 90%, a 0.6% increase. Terminal load also increased. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on August 22 was 2.2 million tons, a 50,000 - ton decrease. The PTA spot processing fee increased by 24 yuan to 243 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 9 yuan to 324 yuan. The supply - side unexpected maintenance increased in August, changing the inventory accumulation pattern to destocking, and the PTA processing fee is expected to continue to repair [28] Ethylene Glycol - The EG01 contract fell 9 yuan to 4481 yuan, and the East China spot price remained unchanged at 4553 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 73.2%, a 6.2% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had start - up or load - change operations. The downstream load was 90%, a 0.6% increase. Terminal load also increased. The import arrival forecast was 54,000 tons, and the East China departure on August 26 was 12,000 tons. The port inventory was 500,000 tons, a 47,000 - ton decrease. The cost - side ethylene price rose, and the coal price fell. The industry fundamentals show that overseas and domestic maintenance plants are starting up, and downstream start - up is recovering from the off - season, but the supply is still in excess. The port inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle in the medium - term, and the valuation is relatively high year - on - year, with downward pressure in the medium - term [29]