五矿期货贵金属日报-20250828

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of gold benefits from the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, while the price of silver is more driven by the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy. There is a possibility that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points more than the market expects this year. Against the background of the further fermentation of the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy, the increase in the silver price will be significantly greater than that of gold, and the gold - silver ratio will be further revised downward. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating range of the main contract of Shanghai gold is 770 - 794 yuan/gram, and that of the main contract of Shanghai silver is 9135 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - On August 27, 2025, Shanghai gold rose 0.33% to 784.16 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver rose 0.02% to 9327.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 0.03% to 3449.50 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver rose 0.01% to 39.22 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.24%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.14 [2] - New York Fed President Williams made a neutral - to - dovish statement, suggesting that the Fed may adjust interest rates. The CME interest rate observer shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at the September interest - rate meeting is 88.7%, and it is also priced that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at the December meeting [2] Key Data of Gold and Silver - Gold: COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) was 3451.80 dollars/ounce, up 0.25%; trading volume decreased by 12.96% to 14.71 million lots; open interest decreased by 1.71% to 43.85 million lots; inventory remained flat at 1200 tons. LBMA gold's closing price was 3376.35 dollars/ounce, up 0.27%. SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) was 781.16 yuan/gram, up 0.01%; trading volume increased by 8.75% to 19.21 million lots; open interest decreased by 1.72% to 40.89 million lots; inventory remained flat at 37.50 tons; the precipitated funds flowed out by 1.71% to 511.07 billion yuan. Au(T + D)'s closing price was 777.62 yuan/gram, up 0.10%; trading volume decreased by 0.91% to 27.31 tons; open interest increased by 2.23% to 200.08 tons [7] - Silver: COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) was 38.70 dollars/ounce, up 0.38%; open interest increased by 1.31% to 15.85 million lots; inventory remained flat at 15825 tons. LBMA silver's closing price was 38.22 dollars/ounce, down 0.53%. SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) was 9305.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.52%; trading volume decreased by 5.65% to 44.75 million lots; open interest decreased by 2.26% to 74.03 million lots; inventory increased by 3.39% to 1165.50 tons; the precipitated funds flowed out by 2.77% to 185.98 billion yuan. Ag(T + D)'s closing price was 9261.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.54%; trading volume increased by 30.65% to 354.76 tons; open interest increased by 1.85% to 3354.472 tons [7] Price - Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the relationship between the price of gold and silver and factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, trading volume, open interest, and the near - far month structure, as well as the internal and external price differences of gold and silver [9][12][13][18][21][23][30][32][34][41][43][49][53]